Bitcoin’s hashrate has recently seen a significant decline of over 40% since its September ATH, marking the biggest drop since 2021. This led to some voices in the industry to point to the possibility of the biggest miner capitulation since 2021. But is this the case in January 2026?
We’ll analyze what’s happening, compared to 2021, and address the potential miner capitulation to see whether big miners are indeed pivoting out of crypto.
Bitcoin’s hashrate is an important metric, measuring the total computational power that’s currently working to secure the network.
Bitcoin’s recent hashrate drop
After reaching an ATH above 1.28 ZH/s on September 20, 2025, Bitcoin’s hashrate dropped to a low of over 676 EH/s on January 25, 2026, a decline of over 40%.
Before the most recent sharp drop which took place between January 22 and January 25, Bitcoin’s hashrate fluctuated between approximately 900 EH/s and over 1,000 ZH/s, CoinWarz data shows.
Capriole founder and investor Charles Edwards, highlighted on X that the BTC hashrate has been trending down for months, saying that the recent decline in hashrate is echoing the biggest miner capitulation since 2021, and hinting at the fact that big miners are pivoting out of crypto.
However, the sharpest drop in BTC hashate debuted on January 22-23 and coincided with the start of the North American winter storm named Winter Storm Fern by The Weather Channel.
Winter Storm Fern effects on Bitcoin hashrate explained
The winter storm effects included the following:
- Energy grid stress and power outages – Over 1 million homes saw outages as heat demand spiked; some grid operators asked energy users like miners to reduce consumption.
- Reduced mining operations – Big mining pools in the US saw sharp drops; Foundry USA saw a hashrate drop of 60% in days, with a slowdown in block production; declines were observed at Antpool, Binance Pool and Luxor. VanEck’s head of digital assets research pointed to the BTC miners’ role in easing grid strain during extreme weather events.
- Hashrate pulled offline – Hashrate temporary shutdown by Foundry USA, aimed at helping grid stability.
- Block times lengthened – Due to fewer miners online, average block intervals increased to 12-14 minutes from the 10-minute target, until difficulty adjustment.
The winter storm was the main trigger for the most recent Bitcoin hashdrop. Comparisons with the 2021 decline, led to assumptions that Bitcoin is seeing the biggest capitulation event since then.
No one is talking about Bitcoin’s hash rate collapsing -40% from ATH. The biggest miner capitulation since 2021. Yikes. Energy value falling in turn. Very certainly means some big miners are pivoting out of crypto. pic.twitter.com/JKFQmQeHYl
— Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) January 29, 2026
The 2021 BTC hashrate decline and miner capitulation
In 2021, the Bitcoin hashrate dropped from highs above 179 EH/s in May to lows of over 87 EH’s in June, a drop by approximately 50%.
However, the comparison with 2021 is far-fetched, as the year was marked by an important event for the global crypto ecosystem: China’s Bitcoin mining ban.
Key points worth noting about the 2021 China BTC mining ban include the following:
- China abruptly banned industrial BTC mining (between May and June 2021, coinciding with the sharp hashrate drop), citing energy use and financial risk.
- Bitcoin hashrate drop between May and June 2021 was the biggest drop in hashrate ever.
- BTC miners saw forced shutdowns and permanent exits, and had to physically relocate ASICs abroad.
- Mining power migrated to the US, Kazakhstan, Canada, and Russia.
- Bitcoin difficulty recorded multiple downward adjustments to stabilize block production.
- Following the shock, Bitcoin’s network remained live and hashrate recovered by December 2021 to May levels.
Miner capitulation: 2021 vs 2026
2021 was marked by a huge the huge China BTC mining ban event, which led to miner capitulation, but 2026 is different due to multiple reasons.
Despite hashrate fluctuations in the past month, the most abrupt decline was recorded during the North American winter storm which debuted on January 22.
In 2026, miners can turn off/on without existential damage, with Foundry USA as the best example. Other Bitcoin miners, like MARA, also stepped up during the recent US storm.
On January 29, the BTC miner announced that during this week, it curtailed nearly 770 MW of mining operations during the storm, to voluntarily free up power when the grid needed it most.
When temperatures dropped, we stepped up.
❄️ This week MARA curtailed nearly 770 MW of mining operations during the winter storm, voluntarily freeing up power when the grid needed it most.
Dispatchable. Responsive. Essential infrastructure. pic.twitter.com/M8zIy69nIf
— MARA (@MARA) January 29, 2026
So, compared to 2021, when Bitcoin mining was forcibly stopped in China, now miners in the US are voluntarily pausing operations to support the grid.
While Charles Edwards believes that we’re in the middle of a BTC miner capitulation similar to the one in 2021, in 2026, key BTC miners are not pivoting out of crypto; the hashrate drop is a weather event in the US combined with the usual mining dynamics during a bear market.
Yes, because price is down near the average break-even level for miners, $87k.
I think it is very reasonable to push back on your claim that it is ‘very certainly’ miners pivoting out of crypto.
It is a weather event in US combined with the usual mining dynamics in a bear. pic.twitter.com/i3b8VGM8Bv
— _Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ (@_Checkmatey_) January 29, 2026
Top BTC mining pools by hashrate
Currently, Foundry USA accounts for almost 28% of the global mining pool hashrate, followed by Antpool with almost 16%, according to Hashrate Index data from the past 3 days.
Even if in China Bitcoin mining is technically still banned at the national legal level, in practice, most mining activity has re-emerged and it now makes up a huge share of the global hashrate.
In the past year, China mining pools made up over 45.5% globally, followed by the US with over 34%.
BTC miners’ profits
Regarding the BTC miners’ profits, new reports reveal that BTC miners have seen a profit rise of 150% amidst the US winter storm. However, their profits don’t come from mining BTC now, but from selling power back to the grid.
Well-prepared BTC miners don’t use energy for mining, but they are selling surplus power back to stressed power grids, and end up making more money than they would by mining BTC.
Scott Norris, Chief Mining Officer at tokenized Bitcoin hashpower company Omnes, recently said in an interview that the grid may ask for energy, and the mining may turn off, but this means that the grid is paying more for the energy than the miner is making by mining Bitcoin.
Bitcoin mining stocks rallied recently, amidst the new opportunity. TeraWulf (WULF) stock surged by over 13% in the past 5 days, trading above $14.5.
Also, IREN stock surged by over 14% in the past 5 days, trading near $60 on January 30.
Both BTC miners operate in the US, and IREN also has active operations in Canada.
The AI factor supporting BTC miners
Also, some mining companies are co-locating AI servers and ASICs in 2026, and AI workloads are flexible and can use surplus power or GPU rigs.
IREN, formerly Iris Energy, Core Scientific, and others have already integrated AI into their infrastructure.
AI demand accelerated since 2024 for BTC miners, and it’s boosting grid-friendly infrastructure investment, which benefits BTC miners via efficient data centers, better power contracts, and the opportunity to monetize spare energy.
We are not witnessing a 2021-like BTC miner capitulation
Overall, we cannot say that we’re in the middle of a Bitcoin miner capitulation like the one in 2021, for multiple reasons, including the fact that miners are still profitable, despite pausing operations to support the grid voluntarily.
The recent significant hashrate drop was clearly mainly caused by the US storm, and the best BTC miners who are well-prepared managed to see profits during this period. After the storm passes, the Bitcoin hashrate will eventually return to new ATHs.
