Key Points
- Peter Brandt, a veteran trader, has suggested that Bitcoin may have already peaked at $70,000 based on an “exponential decay” pattern.
- Other analysts and models, however, predict that Bitcoin could reach up to $210,000 before the end of its bull run.
Peter Brandt, an experienced trader, has proposed that Bitcoin may have already reached its highest point in this cycle at $70,000. This assertion is based on the pattern of “exponential decay”.
Exponential Decay Pattern
Brandt’s theory suggests that each successive Bitcoin bull market cycle has a peak price that is approximately 20% of the previous cycle’s peak gain. This pattern has been observed in the past three market cycles. In other words, each successful bull market cycle has lost 80% of the previous cycle’s exponential energy.
Using this decay rate, Brandt has estimated that the current cycle could only see a 4.5x gain from the low of around $15,500, indicating a cycle top around $70,000. This is a level that Bitcoin already achieved in March when its price reached $73,000. However, Brandt assigns only a 25% probability that Bitcoin has already peaked in this cycle.
Alternate Models
Giovanni Santostasi, CEO and Director of Research at Quantonomy, has countered Brandt’s theory with his own, based on long-term power law behavior. He argues that Brandt’s theory lacks significant data for substantial statistical analysis.
Santostasi’s model measures the percentage deviation of price peaks from the long-term power law trend, predicting a different exponential decay pattern. Based on this, he predicts a fourth cycle peak around December 2025 of around $210,000. He also predicts the bottom for the next cycle to be around $83,000.
Other analysts have also made predictions about Bitcoin’s peak in this cycle. Pav Hundal, Swyftx lead analyst, estimates a price of around $120,000 by the next halving in 2028. Laurent Benayoun, CEO of Acheron Trading, anticipates a potential cycle top of $180,000.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading at $62,528, down 15% from its all-time high in mid-March.