Key Points
- Arthur Hayes, former BitMEX CEO, predicts Bitcoin has reached a local bottom and will gradually rise in the coming months.
- Hayes attributes the recent market slump to several factors, including the U.S. tax season and concerns about Federal Reserve decisions.
Arthur Hayes, ex-CEO of BitMEX, has expressed his belief that Bitcoin (BTC) has reached its local bottom and anticipates a gradual increase in the upcoming months.
In a blog post dated May 3, Hayes discussed the recent market downturn, stating, “The price action played out as I expected.”
Bitcoin’s Market Performance
Hayes explained that Bitcoin hit a local low of approximately $58,600 earlier this week. However, he predicts it will rally to above $60,000 and then stay rangebound between $60,000 and $70,000 until August.
The 12% Bitcoin retreat this week was a “well-needed market cleansing,” according to Hayes. He attributed this to the U.S. tax season, concerns about Federal Reserve decisions, the Bitcoin halving “sell the news event,” and a slowdown of spot Bitcoin ETF asset under management growth.
Hayes anticipates that the crypto markets will slowly climb higher after the recent sell-off, driven by increased dollar liquidity from the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening (QT) taper and the U.S. Treasury’s debt issuance plans.
Effects of Federal Reserve Policies
Hayes suggests that by tapering QT, the central bank is effectively injecting more liquidity into markets. This could theoretically make its way into riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies, providing buying pressure.
Hayes considers this “stealth money printing,” which is positive for high-risk assets. He believes that “The slow addition of billions of dollars of liquidity each month will dampen negative price movement from here on out,” predicting that prices will “bottom, chop, and begin a slow grind higher.”
Other market observers, such as Dr. Jeff Ross, founder and CEO of Vailshire Capital Management, have also predicted a sideways market for the next few months. Ross stated that he was “still respecting the ongoing bullcrab market,” despite the doom and gloom.
Institutional crypto brokerage MatrixPort has reiterated its outlook that post-halving, “Bitcoin tends to move sideways afterward for four to five months based on previous instances.”
At the time of writing, Bitcoin prices had recovered 4.2% on the day to trade at $59,804. However, the asset was still down 19% from the mid-March all-time high.
