Bitcoin’s recent parabolic price surge is being tested as multiple macroeconomic factors weigh on the cryptocurrency.
According to Bravo Research‘s latest Macro Report, titled “Is the 2025 Bitcoin Crash Starting?” published on December 31, Bitcoin may face fresh headwinds in early 2025.
ETF Outflows and Weak Stock Markets Pressure BTC
Currently trading below the $100,000 mark, Bitcoin is under pressure due to record outflows from the largest U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) and lackluster performance in stock markets. Additionally, the Federal Reserve’s increasingly hawkish stance has dampened optimism surrounding Bitcoin’s bull market.
Bravo Research warned that Bitcoin could “catch down to stocks’ weakness” in the months ahead. A divergence between Bitcoin (BTC/USD) and the S&P 500 was highlighted, with the report comparing December 2024 market dynamics to prior trends.
“This is the opposite of September 2024’s setup, when stocks hit new highs while Bitcoin struggled. Back then, Bitcoin eventually caught up to stocks’ strength. Now, we might see Bitcoin catch down to stocks’ weakness,” the report noted.
Despite its parabolic momentum, analysts suggest Bitcoin’s price may retreat before resuming its upward trajectory. Bravo Research identified $80,000 as a potential level to “buy the dip” for the next phase of the bull market.
Bitcoin ETF Flows: A Double-Edged Sword
The report also emphasized the role of Bitcoin ETFs in influencing price movements. Bitcoin ETFs currently hold 1.15 million BTC, with an average daily accumulation of 3,000 BTC. At this pace, researchers estimate that Bitcoin could rise by another 50% in just 50 days.
However, Bravo Research cautioned that even a slight slowdown in ETF demand could trigger a price decline. This was illustrated by March 2024, when Bitcoin prices fell by 30%, despite continued buying by ETFs.
“So, March 2024 was a great time to sell, despite Bitcoin ETFs still accumulating,” the report pointed out.
While ETF flows remain a major driver of demand, the report underlined that BTC/USD may not always align with ETF buying patterns, making corrections a realistic possibility.
Outlook for 2025
As 2025 unfolds, Bitcoin’s performance will likely remain tied to macroeconomic trends, ETF dynamics, and its relationship with traditional markets. While Bravo Research views $80,000 as a key level for long-term accumulation, the short-term outlook remains uncertain as Bitcoin navigates its parabolic phase and the broader economic environment.
