Key Points
- Bitcoin's strong performance around supply-halving events and high demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs are expected to push Bitcoin to new highs in 2024.
- Historically, Bitcoin price bull runs have been associated with halving events due to decreased supply and increased demand.
Bitcoin's (BTC) price surges are often linked to its halving events, which occur every four years and halve the miner block rewards. The next halving, which is just three days away, will decrease block rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.
Historical Impact of Bitcoin Halvings
In the past, three Bitcoin halvings have occurred, and each time, the BTC price was lower one month before the halving than at the time of the event. For instance, the price of Bitcoin was around $12 at the time of the first halving on Nov. 28, 2012, and it rose to a peak high at $1,242 one year later.
The second halving took place on July 9, 2016, and Bitcoin’s price reached an all-time high of about $19,785 by December 2017. At the time of the third halving on May 11, 2020, Bitcoin’s price was $8,730, and it climbed to its all-time high of nearly $69,000 by November 2021.
The reduction in the supply issuance rate emphasizes Bitcoin’s scarcity, which can drive up demand and consequently increase its price. Furthermore, the halving event attracts new investors and increases trader activity.
Price Predictions After Bitcoin's Halving
Crypto analyst Rekt Capital identified five phases of the Bitcoin Halving, which include the pre-halving period, pre-halving rally, pre-halving retrace, re-accumulation, and the "parabolic uptrend" as the final phase. He suggests that anticipation of a bull market may push investors to increase capital flows into the asset.
Analysts at Bitfinex crypto exchange believe that the high demand driven by the United States spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will help propel BTC to its current peak above $69,000. They predict a conservative price objective of $100,000-$120,000 to be achieved by Q4 2024.
Peter Brandt, an experienced trader, suggests that the price of Bitcoin might reach $150,000 by Q4/2025 based on its current performance. According to PlanB, a pseudonymous quantitative analyst, the bull market began on March 1 after the end of an accumulation period.
Bitcoin mining experts also share a positive outlook for Bitcoin prices after the halving. Andy Fajar Handika, co-founder and CEO of decentralized Bitcoin mining pool Loka Mining, anticipates short-term volatility consistent with previous halvings due to supply shock and reduced inflation rate. He attributes the potential price increase to the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs and the success of meta-protocols such as Ordinals.
