Key Points
- Bitcoin futures options worth over $1.5 billion are set to expire on April 12, potentially causing price volatility.
- Despite the potential volatility, Bitcoin’s price may not necessarily fall due to the expiry of these options.
Bitcoin Futures Options Expiry
On April 12, Bitcoin futures options worth over $1.5 billion are due to expire. This event could trigger price volatility and potentially cause Bitcoin’s value to drop to the $69,000 mark. These options have a put-to-call ratio of 0.62, indicating a maximum pain point of $69,000 for Bitcoin.
The max pain point is the price at which most options contracts would expire worthless. It shows where options market participants are positioned, but it does not necessarily influence where the underlying asset will be trading at, according to Hao Yang, the global head of derivatives trading at Bybit exchange.
Price Volatility and Market Conditions
Times close to options expiration often see increased price volatility in crypto markets. However, Yang doesn’t anticipate more volatility due to the relatively small size of the options set to expire. Bitcoin’s price action was flat in the 24 hours leading up to 10:25 am UTC when it was trading at $70,725.
Bitcoin could still experience increased downside price volatility due to external macroeconomic factors, but not necessarily because of the upcoming options expiry, says Andrey Stoychev, the head of Prime Brokerage at Nexo. Whether Bitcoin falls to the $69,000 mark depends on the broader context, including market sentiment and Bitcoin’s relationship with inflation.
The recent U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which came in higher than expected, has raised concerns about inflationary pressures, potentially impacting Bitcoin’s price dynamics. This prompted Bitcoin whales to buy the dip, nudging the price back above the $70,000 mark.
Bitcoin ETF Inflows Slow Down
Ahead of the Bitcoin halving, inflows from the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States have been slowing down. The ETFs generated a total of $220 million worth of net inflows during the past week.
Weekly ETF inflows have been steadily slowing since their best week on March 11, when they generated $2.58 billion worth of net inflows. The ETFs only managed $337 million worth of net inflows last week, down over 45% from $615 million on the previous week.
The Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated over 839,000 BTC, worth $59.4 billion, in total on-chain holdings, representing 4.26% of the current BTC supply.
