Key Points
- Bitcoin (BTC) is expected to experience a "pullback" around its next block subsidy halving.
- The specific timing of this event is uncertain, but it is predicted to follow the patterns of the 2016 and 2020 bull runs.
Based on the patterns of previous bull runs in 2016 and 2020, a popular trader and analyst known as Rekt Capital predicts a "pullback" for Bitcoin (BTC) around its next block subsidy halving in his recent YouTube video.
Bitcoin's Expected Pre-Halving Retrace
Bitcoin has been trading within a narrow range for over a week, with $52,000 serving as a resistance zone.
This has impacted sentiment and the performance of altcoin prices, but experienced market observers remain hopeful.
Rekt Capital, analyzing previous runs to all-time highs, identified key stages common to both bull market setups.
"In the past, a macro downtrend break always precedes upside going into the halving," he clarified.
"Then we have a pre-halving retrace and then a post-halving reaccumulation period and then parabolic price action toward new all-time highs."
An accompanying chart showed BTC/USD breaking its initial downward-sloping trend line, only to get stuck in a resistance zone previously formed by it.
What's missing in 2024 so far is the breaking through and then retesting as support — the "pre-halving retrace" phase.
"We're going to have the same thing in this cycle as well," Rekt Capital continued.
The pre-halving pullback is expected to be around $45,000, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
Rekt Capital posed the question, "Are we going to retest this resistance this month in the pre-halving period?" because historically, this has never been achieved in the pre-halving period.
Earlier, Rekt Capital concluded that BTC/USD had fully entered its pre-halving run-up, now adding that key price events were coming quicker this cycle than before.
Sub-$50,000 BTC Price Levels in Focus
Regarding the current price action, others saw little reason to become bearish on the market amid the rangebound moves.
"Bitcoin is trading at the exact same price as it was 7 days ago," noted Caleb Franzen, founder of research platform Cubic Analytics, on X (formerly Twitter) on Feb. 22.
"Fluctuating between $50.6k & $53k for the past 7 days, but the lowest daily close has been $51.6k (which is also right where it's trading right now). I really don't understand the panic or the bear victory laps."
Analyst Matthew Hyland broadly agreed, highlighting the importance of the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from all-time highs just above $48,000.
"If $49k folds then the picture changes but consolidation in an uptrend favors a continuation of the uptrend," he nonetheless cautioned.
