Key Points
- Bitcoin’s value days destroyed (VDD) multiple, a historically accurate on-chain metric, suggests the cryptocurrency could be nearing the end of a macro bull run.
- Despite this, some indicators such as the relative strength index (RSI) offer a more optimistic outlook.
The value days destroyed (VDD) multiple, an on-chain metric historically used to predict Bitcoin price peaks, has reached an unusual high. This could indicate that Bitcoin is nearing the end of its macro bull run.
Bitcoin’s VDD Multiple Reaches Uncommon High
Despite Bitcoin’s inability to surpass its previous all-time highs or provide firm support, some remain confident in its potential for price discovery. However, those examining on-chain signals have expressed concerns.
One such analyst is TXMC, a YouTube channel host, who recently shared fresh VDD multiple data. The chart showed highs that have typically preceded significant Bitcoin price peaks.
The VDD multiple compares on-chain spending to historical averages to identify when market psychology is signaling a price peak. The “value days destroyed” component reflects the number of days coins were inactive when used on-chain.
In March, when the VDD multiple was approximately 3.5, TXMC described it as “overheated.” However, he also noted that the situation in 2024 differs from early 2021. During the last spike of the VDD multiple, Bitcoin had already doubled its previous all-time high of $20,000.
RSI Offers Optimistic Perspective
Other chart metrics have been providing traders with cautious optimism. For instance, the relative strength index (RSI), a classic indicator, recently “reset” to levels last seen in late January. The daily RSI was at 53 on April 10, well below the traditional “overbought” zone, which starts at 70 and often accompanies the steepest part of Bitcoin price cycle gains.
According to popular trader Jelle, it’s typically time for a bounce when Bitcoin’s daily RSI retests ±50. Another trader, Alan Tardigrade, pointed out promising signals on 4-hour RSI timeframes in the form of a hidden bullish divergence with price.
Monthly timeframes continue to hold above 70, a feature that controversial analyst Plan B and others have been monitoring in advance of Bitcoin’s incoming block subsidy halving.
