Bitcoin slipped below $109,000 late last night, then rebounded to about $109,300 early Friday. The move leaves BTC down 1.5% over 24 hours and 5.9% over the week.
The backdrop is a mix of macro data, policy signals, and derivatives positioning. August inflation printed 2.7% year over year on the headline measure, while core came in at 2.9%, a touch hotter than July.
Derivatives drove much of the volatility. In the past day, roughly $970 million of crypto futures were liquidated, including $852 million in long positions that were betting on price increases. The largest single wipeout was a $19.2 million ETH-USDT position on HTX, according to exchange analytics.
Positioning has turned more cautious. On Myriad, 69% of users now predict BTC will tag $105,000 before it reaches $125,000. Two days ago sentiment was evenly split between bears and bulls.
Policy headlines added to the noise. President Donald Trump announced new tariffs effective October 1, including 100% on branded drugs, 25% on heavy-duty trucks, 50% on kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities, and 30% on upholstered furniture. The tariff path and the Fed’s next moves remain the near-term catalysts.
Rate expectations eased a little. The CME FedWatch Tool shows traders assign 87.7% odds to another 25 bp cut in October, down from 91.9% last week. Chair Jerome Powell said this week that the inflation impact from tariffs could be short lived, but markets want confirmation in the data.
Flows reflect the cross-current. Bitcoin’s brief drop through support flushed leverage, then found bids just above $109,000. With quarterly options expiry looming and a heavy notional open interest, price is sensitive to hedging flows around key strikes.
Beyond Bitcoin, the broader market felt the hit. Total crypto liquidations approached $1 billion at one point, and aggregate cap fell alongside BTC. In this setting, intraday bounces can fade quickly if fresh spot demand does not arrive.
Into the weekend, traders are watching two zones. On the downside, $109,000 and then $105,000. On the upside, $112,000 to $115,000, where last week’s breakdown began. A clear reclaim would help stabilize the near-term picture.
