Bitcoin is holding near $101,500 after a bruising week that briefly pushed the price below six figures for the first time since May. The past 24 hours were calmer, with BTC ranging between $100,000 and $103,000 as derivatives leverage reset and spot flows improved.
ETF data showed a turn after six straight days of redemptions. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded about $240 million of net inflows on Thursday.
Ethereum ETFs added roughly $12.5 million and Solana ETFs about $29 million. On chain, large holders accumulated an estimated 30,000 BTC this week, close to $3 billion, while exchange balances continued to drift lower. Analysts describe the tone as shifting from panic to positioning.
Macro backdrop and liquidity
Macro signals remain mixed. U.S. employers announced 153,074 job cuts in October, the highest October print since 2003, pointing to corporate caution.
The ongoing U.S. government shutdown limits visibility on data and policy. After the October rate cut, market odds sit near 60% for another move in December, but communication remains uncertain. Easing in U.S.–China trade tensions and resumed Fed repo operations reduced dollar funding stress this week, which helped pause cross-asset deleveraging.
Weekend trading typically brings thinner liquidity and wider spreads. ETF creations and redemptions pause, so spot direction often leans on offshore derivatives, Asia session flow, and headlines. That can amplify moves around round numbers.
Rotation inside crypto
Flows suggest rotation rather than broad exit. Desks report funds trimming altcoins and adding to bitcoin and ether, a pattern that can lift BTC dominance if it persists.
Ethereum trades near $3,340, BNB around $955, and Solana near $155. Roughly 71% of BTC supply remains in profit, a sign that long-term holders are not capitulating despite short-term weakness.
Technical levels into the weekend
Price reclaimed the $100,000 psychological area after a midweek drop to $98,000. The 50-day EMA sits near $100,000 and has acted as a pivot since September 2023. The 50-week SMA is another key reference that many traders call the line in the sand for trend health.
Immediate support sits at $100,000 then $98,000. A clean break below $98,000 risks forced selling into the $95,000 to $96,000 zone where prior liquidation clusters sit. Resistance is stacked near $103,000 to $105,000. A daily close above $105,000 would improve momentum and open room toward $108,000 to $110,000 where supply reappeared earlier this month.
Funding rates are near neutral after the October 10 liquidation that erased an estimated $20 billion of leveraged positions. If funding turns positive while open interest rises into thin weekend books, moves can extend faster than expected in either direction.
Scenarios to consider
If calm persists and spot leads, the market may continue basing above $100,000 with shallow pullbacks that are absorbed by whales and ETF buyers when trading resumes on Monday. That path would keep pressure on $103,000 to $105,000 and favor a gradual rebuild of bullish momentum.
If headlines hit or derivatives drive price under $100,000, stops below $98,000 can accelerate a sweep of lower liquidity pockets before buyers step back in. With ETF desks offline, rebounds can be slower unless Asia flow is supportive.
What to watch
Spot ETF flow when U.S. markets reopen, exchange balances from older wallets, funding and open interest on major venues, and any guidance from Fed officials ahead of December. A weekly close above the 50-week moving average would help the recovery case. A close below it would keep the focus on defense and range trading until policy visibility improves.
