Key Points
- Bitcoin (BTC) might be gearing up for a pre-halving correction, despite reaching a new all-time high.
- Analysts anticipate a possible retrace that could last up to 77 days, although the drawdown might be smaller than previous cycles.
Is a Pre-Halving Bitcoin Correction on the Horizon?
Despite reaching a new all-time high of around $73,700 on March 13, Bitcoin (BTC) could be preparing for a pre-halving correction, based on historical chart patterns.
There are signs that Bitcoin is overheating, which could result in a significant price drop before the halving in April. This aligns with the 20% pre-halving correction in 2020, and the 38% retracement before the 2016 halving, according to an anonymous analyst.
Bitcoin's Performance and Future Predictions
The analyst predicts a possible retrace that could last up to 77 days. However, the drawdown might be smaller than previous cycles due to a -18% pullback in January and a -14% drop in early March.
The current cycle is unique as Bitcoin set a new record high before the halving event. Additionally, Bitcoin still has room to grow according to its trajectory from previous halving cycles. If Bitcoin followed a similar growth trajectory to the past two cycles, one BTC could be worth between $100,000 to $300,000 per coin.
Bitcoin has successfully retested the old all-time high of $69,200, which now acts as the new support line. Looking ahead, wealth management firm Bernstein predicts Bitcoin to reach around $150,000 after the halving and by mid-2025.
The elevated demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs has made Bernstein "more convinced" about their price target. They estimated $10Bn inflows for 2024 and another $60Bn for 2025. Since the ETF launch on Jan 10, Bitcoin ETF inflows have already crossed $9.5Bn.
Bernstein also advised clients to invest in Bitcoin miners, as the recent underperformance "is probably the last window before halving." Bernstein’s price target is modest compared to the expectations of Cathie Wood’s Ark invest, which has a “brought forward” its long-term Bitcoin price target of over $1 million.
