Key Points
- Bitcoin (BTC) is showing signs of repeating its 2016 bull market trend, with a significant breakout expected at $75,000.
- The current BTC price action is similar to early 2017, according to trader Jelle, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) playing a major role.
Bitcoin is displaying a pattern that parallels its 2016 bull market, with a significant surge anticipated when it crosses the $75,000 threshold.
BTC Price Echoes 2017 Trends
Analysts often draw comparisons between the current bull cycle and previous ones, especially the 2016-17 and 2020-21 cycles.
Despite 2024 marking a new all-time high before a block subsidy halving, there is ample data suggesting that Bitcoin’s steepest gains are yet to come.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a significant factor in this scenario, according to trader Jelle. The RSI measures whether an asset is overbought or oversold at a given level.
On weekly timeframes, the BTC/USD pair presents an intriguing picture.
RSI Indicating Bullish Divergence
“Bitcoin is playing out incredibly similar to early 2017,” Jelle stated.
A chart accompanying his statement compares BTC/USD performance on its way to its 2017 peak of $20,000 to its journey from January 2023 to the present.
Currently, as was the case seven years ago, the RSI is declining while the price is accelerating towards previous highs.
Jelle noted a “hidden bullish divergence and choppy waters right around the previous all-time highs — before the main breakout.” He added that clearing $75,000 would quickly accelerate this trend.
Historically, Bitcoin tends to experience its most vigorous upside when the RSI is in the “overbought” zone, above 70. Such readings can persist for an extended period before the BTC price rally becomes unsustainable.
Return to $60,000?
Opinions vary on Bitcoin’s short-term prospects. Some predict a drop to $60,000 or even lower.
The recent preliminary approval of spot Ethereum (ETH) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US has had little impact on the performance of either coin.
Trader Michaël van de Poppe noted that liquidity was in “rotation” from Bitcoin to Ethereum around the ETF launch, but described the situation as “fine.” He also suggested that Bitcoin’s consolidation within the current range could continue for a longer period, possibly seeing a return to the $61-63K range.
