Key Points
- Bitcoin (BTC) has potential to reach $180,000 if historical gains are repeated.
- The Williams%R Oscillator has signaled a rare bull signal for the fourth time in history.
Bitcoin has a possibility of reaching $180,000, should historical gains repeat themselves. This was suggested by Caleb Franzen, the founder of Cubic Analytics, on March 1. He suggested that Bitcoin price returns could hit a 260% increase from current levels during this cycle.
Analysing the Rare Bull Signal
Bitcoin's value increased by over 43% in February alone. However, a long-term BTC price metric suggests even higher levels. Franzen analyzed the Williams%R Oscillator on 3-year timeframes and found a rare bull signal. This signal has only appeared four times in history.
Franzen used the Williams%R Oscillator to measure the strength of Bitcoin price trends. He pointed out that this tool was crucial in charting the beginning of Bitcoin's recovery from the 2022 bear market lows.
A Rare Occurrence
Currently, an even rarer event is occurring - the 36-month Williams%R Oscillator is moving into "overbought" territory above -20. Franzen reiterated that overbought signals are incredibly bullish and should be viewed as momentum signals.
These signals have appeared in 2013, 2016, and 2020, all of which were the early stages of a Bitcoin bull market. The returns have decreased each cycle, from 1,900% in 2013 to 260% in 2020. Even if the latter is matched, it would produce a $180,000 Bitcoin price.
Franzen acknowledged that these unusual events should not be seen as a guarantee of future performance. He stated, "This study is unequivocally bullish, but we should view it simply as improving bullish probabilities rather than being outright bullish from a binary perspective."
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is another indicator that tends to spend the steepest parts of bull markets at "overbought" levels. On daily timeframes, this is firmly overbought, briefly passing 80/100 on Feb. 28. In late December, daily RSI executed a form of reset, which preceded Bitcoin’s initial push higher into the launch of the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, in the United States.
Monthly timeframes are even more optimistic with the RSI only now entering the “overbought” zone.
