The latest data shows that there’s an increasing chance of a US Government shutdown tomorrow, October 1st, in case there’s a lapse in federal government funding. The event could create uncertainty that would reach global markets.
But how could this affect Bitcoin and the crypto market in 2025?
Potential US Government Shutdown on October 1st
According to the latest data from Polymarket, there’s an 85% chance of a US Government shutdown on October 1st.
Official reports from Stanton.house.gov. address the potential event, revealing that the federal government may enter a shutdown tomorrow, beginning at 12:01 am, if there is a lapse in federal government funding.
Every year, the US Congress must pass bills to approve funding for government agencies and services, and if the bills are passed on time, Congress can pass a short-term fix called a continuing resolution (CR) to keep the money flowing until funding levels are ready, the notes reveal.
In the case of no funding bill or CR, the government shuts down because no funding is approved.
Recently, President Donald Trump addressed the issue, saying that “this is all caused by the Democrats,” who want to give money away to people who entered the US illegally. Democrats, on the other hand, believe their push for preserving health-insurance subsidies is a popular one, as reported by the BBC.
Currently, the Republicans and Democrats in Washington remain at odds over how to fund the government in order to avoid a shutdown tomorrow. The BBC revealed that there was a meeting at the White House on September 29, which showed “little progress.”
U.S. government shutdowns have become popular events during the past 50 years, and the last one was during Trump’s first term, beginning on December 22, 2018, and lasting until January 2019 – the largest one in history. It was brought about by disagreements over funding a wall on the Mexico border.
How a US Government Shutdown Affects Markets
While some argue that government shutdowns are “political theatre”, others highlight that this goes beyond political games, creating uncertainty in the global markets.
Kate Lyman, AvaTrade chief market analyst, believes that this uncertainty will spill into the crypto markets as well, saying that they will also feel the shock.
Addressing Crypto Market Effects: Economic Predictions, Delays in Crypto ETFs, and Supportive Regulations
She said, quoted by Forklog, that in the event of a shutdown, the government will stop publishing employment and inflation data, and without these signals, it will become harder to read the economy and predict the next moves by the US Fed, which will affect the markets.
Government shutdowns halt the release of key reports from agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics, such as jobs data, critical for Fed’s rate decisions.
The lack of data could trigger trader anxiety and risk-off behavior, where investors sell crypto in favor of other safe havens.
However, we already know that the Fed is considering another rate cut in October, and monetary easing is usually a bullish factor for Bitcoin and the general crypto market.
Also, it’s worth noting that a shutdown could slow crypto policy-related progress, according to Blockchain Association representative Jessica Martinez. In this regard, the CLARITY Act, which is a bill that would create a regulatory framework for crypto, could not pass as scheduled.
The US SEC is currently reviewing crypto ETF applications and developing new beneficial rules for the crypto market, and slower moves in this direction could also negatively affect the markets, Lyman believes.
Crypto is also correlated with equities during uncertain times, and a shutdown could pressure stocks, dragging crypto down temporarily. Estimates say that each week of shutdown could cut 0.1% off US GDP, triggering more fear.
Current Bitcoin and Crypto Market State
Despite a potential US government shutdown on October 1st, today, September 30, the general crypto market doesn’t show signs of volatilty and its market cap is at $3.88 trillion.
At the moment of writing this article, Bitcoin is trading in the green, above $113,000, following previous dips to $108,000 levels last week.
Bitcoin Price Action During Previous Government Shutdowns
During the last government shutdown that lasted from December 22, 2018, until January 25, 2019, Bitcoin’s price fluctuated between $3,700 and $3,600, and later in 2019, it reached a top above $10,000. During the 35-day period of shutdown, the Bitcoin price dropped by 6%, but rallied afterwards.
In 2013, there was another government shutdown that started on October 1st and lasted until October 17. Back then, Bitcoin’s price fluctuated between $132 and $125, but topped $200 by the end of the month. BTC surged by over 14% during the 16-day period, amidst early adoption. Bitcoin was seen as a fiat instability signal.
These events show us that Bitcoin saw little volatilty during the previous US government shutdowns and after the events, its price rallied.
On the other hand, we might see some market volatilty triggered by institutional flows in crypto and potential delays in crypto ETFs, but the overall volatility should pass.
Bitcoin’s volatilty index dropped significantly in the past year, highlighting the digital asset’s resilience and stability amidst rising global adoption.
Considering the historical data and the fact that one day ahead of a potential government shutdown, the crypto market and Bitcoin don’t show signs of volatilty, we have plenty of reasons to stay optimistic.
Bitcoin Adoption Rises Globally
In 2025, Bitcoin’s global adoption is on the rise globally, in the US and Europe as well.
Just recently, official reports revealed that Melanion Capital is pioneering thr first private Bitcoin Treasury model in Europe, revealing the firm’s conviction that Bitcoin is more than a tactical hedge – it’s the foundation of a historic monetary transition.
The firm is on a mission to bring Bitcoin to Europe, bridging traditional finance and innovation.
Crypto Industry Maintains Optimism
Bitcoin’s lower volatilty and continued adoption regardless of all economic and geopolitical factors offer the crypto industry strong reasons to stay optimistic ahead of Q4.
Historically speaking, Q4 is bullish for Bitcoin, and Uptober is just around the corner.
As a conclusion, the crypto market should ignore the FUD that some actors are trying to inject into the industry, stay optimistic, and believe that where Bitcoin goes, the market will follow.
