Key Points
- Polymarket's prediction markets estimate a 28% chance of a spot ether ETF approval by the end of May.
- SEC's delay in decision-making and analysts' lowered expectations contribute to the declining odds.
Polymarket's prediction markets have lowered the odds of a spot ether ETF approval to 28% by the end of May. This is a significant drop from the 74% odds in January when spot bitcoin ETFs received approval.
SEC's Delayed Decision
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved 11 spot bitcoin ETFs in January, shifting the focus to the potential approval of spot ether ETFs. Asset managers such as BlackRock and Fidelity have already filed applications. However, the SEC has delayed its decision on these applications, indicating a further delay in the introduction of such financial products.
SEC Chair Gary Gensler's limited mandate for spot bitcoin ETFs provides the agency with more leeway to reject non-bitcoin ETF applications. Analysts from Ryze Labs believe that Gensler does not want his legacy to be that of the SEC Chair who validated the crypto asset class by approving multiple ETFs.
Political Influence and Analysts' Opinions
The likelihood of a spot ether ETF approval faced additional hurdles this week. Two Democratic U.S. senators urged Gensler not to approve future crypto products following the regulator's approval of spot bitcoin ETFs. They argued that other cryptocurrencies lack the trading volumes or integrity to support associated ETPs.
Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas lowered his expectations of a spot ether ETF approval to 30%, down from 70% in January. His colleague James Seyffart also expressed a less optimistic view, stating that there seems to be little to no movement as the deadline approaches.
