Speculations in the crypto industry are divided after Bitcoin dipped to $81,000. Some voices in the ecosystem are saying that Bitcoin has already bottomed, while others expect more upcoming price declines.
It’s important to analyze a few key indicators, current market sentiment, conditions, and important events that could shape Bitcoin’s trajectory in the future.
Bitcoin’s Price Trajectory Since its Latest ATH
Bitcoin reached its ATH on October 6 at above $126,000, amidst a bullish market, but October also marked the debut of the digital asset’s significant price decline.
Following the massive $19 billion crypto liquidation event that took place between October 10-11, the market has recorded intense volatility, as more liquidations followed and institutional interest in BTC declined in November.
Bitcoin’s price dropped to $81,000 levels on November 21st, and at the moment of writing this article, BTC is trading above $86,000, down by approximately 20% this month, a decline fueled by multiple factors.
Since 2013, this is the fifth year when Bitcoin is seeing a sharp monthly decline, with the biggest losses recorded at over 36% in November 2018, according to data from CoinGlass.
There are five days left of this month, and Bitcoin’s potential upcoming trajectory is debated in the industry.
Key Indicators Worth Watching
There are some key elements worth analyzing to understand whether Bitcoin formed a bottom, including miner capitulation, LTHs selling signals, exchange outflows, the MVRV ratio, market sentiment and volatility, technical indicators, and macro conditions.
1. Miner Capitulation Issue
Historically, Bitcoin bottoms form when miners are forced to capitulate due to low revenue, sending BTC to exchanges, while the hash rate drops significantly.
During the past month, the BTC hash rate fluctuated between a top above 1.32 ZH/s on November 2nd, and a low of 906 EH/s on November 18. On November 25, the hash rate dropped from 1.18 ZH/s to over 1 ZH/s. This year, the BTC hash rate has dropped significantly multiple times since June.
During the past year, miners’ revenue dropped sharply from a top of almost $68 million on October 24, reaching levels at $40 million on November 24, but still higher compared to $33 million levels in April. On the other hand, BTC price and miners’ production costs are close, meaning that miner capitulation is not a current issue at the moment.
On the other hand, Bitcoin miners are facing new challenges in 2026, as highlighted by a recent article from Decrypt, addressing analysts’ concerns around power, software, and hosting. Competition from AI data centers pressures miners’ access to cheap energy, while multiple vulnerabilities could shape who controls Bitcoin’s hash rate and which companies survive the growing competition for power.
Matthew R. Case BTC analyst, addressed these details regarding a crisis coming for BTC miners next year, mentioning:
- Hashpower concentration
- A rise in power prices
- Control of the firmware, pool software
- Accounting and tax risks
- Treasury, custody, and counterparty risks
- Miner approvals and high compliance
2. LTHs Behavior
The Bitcoin LTHs’ supply has dropped from June, when it was near 16 million BTC, reaching 14,8 million BTC on November 21; however, it’s still up from February lows at 14,4 million BTC, CoinGlass data shows.
BTC LTHs (long-term holders) are entities holding BTC for at least 155 days. LTH supply usually hits an ATH at BTC bottoms – now this is not the case.
3. BTC Selling Pressure
After peaking earlier this month around 100, the BTC sell-off pressure has dropped recently near 61, according to a Swissblock analyst, signaling a potential bottom for BTC.
4. MVRV Ratio
The MVRV (market value/realized value) ratio has historically marked bottoms when it was below 1 (or between the 0.7-0.85 zone). The last time the MVRV was at 0.8 levels was at the end of 2022 (November -December).
The current MVRV ratio is at 1.5 (as of November 23, 2025) according to Blockchain.com data.
5. Sentiment in the Markets
Bitcoin usually marks a bottom when the Crypto Fear and Greed Index points to Extreme Fear for weeks. We’ve been in Fear/Extreme Fears for weeks, according to the Fear and Greed Index.
Extreme Fear began on November 15 at a 16 level, dropping to 10 on November 22, similar to the same month in 2022. On November 25 this year, the Fear and Greed Index is at 15.
The Bitcoin volatilty index is up from its September low at 0.88%, hitting 2.4% on November 25, according to Bitbo data.
The highest volatilty index was in March, near 2.88%, but it’s been on the rise again since last month. Very low volatilty is encountered at BTC bottoms.
6. 200 Week Moving Average (WMA) and RSI
Bitcoin bottoms usually involve BTC price going below the WMA, then reclaiming it, and RSI below 30.
Since the beginning of September, the BTC price has been above the 200 WMA.
Meanwhile, the RSI is above 51 according to Bitbo data.
7. Pi Cycle Bottom Indicator
The Pi Cycle Bottom indicator is a technical analysis tool designed to predict BTC and altcoin market cycle lows by identifying the crossovers between the 150-day EMA (exponential moving average) and the 471-day SMA (simple moving average), adjusted by a multiplier of 0.475.
The indicator usually signals bottoms when the 150-day EMA crosses above the 471-day SMA or slightly earlier.
The indicator is not 100% accurate, but it can be a reliable signal regarding potential BTC bottoms, helping traders identify moments of extreme macro overselling, and potentially pointing out a trend reversal.
The 150EMA is above the 471SMA since March 2023.
8. Macro Conditions
Bitcoin bottoms are usually correlated with macro pivots, and it rarely bottoms when the macro conditions worsen:
- The US Fed stopped hiking rates, and the chances of a new rate cut in December have surged above 80% according to CME Group data.
- QT is slated to end at the beginning of December.
- The DXY has been on the rise since September, peaking above 100 in November.
- Bond yields in the US have recorded a slight decrease of 0.54% YTD.
Based on our analysis, Bitcoin has already bottomed, or it’s extremely close to bottoming, leaving the doors open for a renewed upward trajectory amidst increasing adoption and regulation for the industry worldwide.
