Key Points
- The Bitcoin bull market officially began on March 1, according to quantitative analyst PlanB.
- The Bitcoin accumulation phase and easy buying opportunities have ended, as per PlanB's analysis.
The bull market for Bitcoin (BTC) is officially underway since March 1, as stated by the pseudonymous quantitative analyst PlanB. PlanB, known for creating the contentious stock-to-flow (S2F) model for Bitcoin price, asserts that the accumulation phase for Bitcoin has concluded.
Bitcoin's Bull Market and S2F Model
In a post on X (formerly Twitter), PlanB referred to the S2F chart and stated, “Bull market has started. If history is any guide, we will see ~10 months of face-melting FOMO: extreme price pumps combined with multiple -30% drops.” This forecast came two days post Bitcoin surpassing $60,000 for the first time in over two years.
Despite its popularity during the 2021 bull run, the S2F model is not a flawless Bitcoin price oracle. As per the model, Bitcoin should have crossed the $100,000 mark in early August 2021, when it was trading around $44,000. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has criticized the S2F model for giving investors a "false sense of certainty."
Analysts' Expectations and Market Trends
PlanB’s predictions align with other market analysts' expectations. Vetle Lunde, a senior analyst at K33 Research, suggests that Bitcoin typically consolidates immediately after the halving but rallies in the subsequent months. Lunde stated that each halving has proven to be a solid entry point into the market, especially 150-400 days post the halving.
In addition to the much-anticipated halving, the recently approved spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have contributed to the growing investor interest in Bitcoin, leading to its subsequent price appreciation.
Despite a 3% correction in Bitcoin price after Grayscale’s recently converted Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) ETF sold $598.9 million worth of BTC on Feb. 29, Bitcoin price has risen over 22% in the past week. Excluding Grayscale’s ETF, the nine new spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded over $2 billion in combined daily volume for the second consecutive day on Feb. 28.
These ETFs have introduced passive, price-agnostic demand for the first time in Bitcoin’s history, which will lead to new all-time highs before the end of 2024, according to a research report by Bitfinex Analysts. The report forecasts a conservative price objective of $100,000-$120,000 to be achieved by Q4 2024, with the cycle peak expected sometime in 2025.
