Key Points
- Bitcoin’s Hash Ribbons metric indicates a potential resumption of the bull run.
- Bitcoin miners are adjusting to a new economic reality after the block subsidy halving in April.
Bitcoin’s price may be headed upwards, according to the Hash Ribbons metric, a classic on-chain indicator. Capriole Investments, a quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund, noted “tempting” signals from this metric in its latest update on June 4.
Hash Ribbons Metric
Since the block subsidy halving in April, Bitcoin miners have had to adjust. The hash rate, which represents the estimated total processing power dedicated to the network, confirms this. After reaching record highs in March, the Bitcoin mining hash rate has cooled and is now consolidating at lower levels. According to Capriole’s founder, Charles Edwards, this is a standard behavior as miners adapt to a new economic reality.
Consequently, Bitcoin’s Hash Ribbons have entered a new “capitulation” phase, which is considered a classic, albeit controversial, Bitcoin buy signal. Edwards summarized this by saying, “Hash Ribbons is back.” He further explained that the Hash Ribbons metric is now tempting us with the current Miner Capitulation, which started two weeks ago.
The metric compares the 60-day moving average of the hash rate to its 30-day equivalent. When the latter drops below the former, it signals a slowdown. This often aligns with the closure of mining operations, bankruptcies, and takeovers. It also often syncs with Bitcoin Halvings.
Implications of Hash Ribbons
Capriole noted a correlation between Hash Ribbons’ weakness and broader corrective BTC price conditions. However, such periods are typically followed by a sustained upside in the long-term. The last capitulation event happened in August 2023, when the BTC/USD exchange rate was around $25,000.
Despite some debate about the relevance of Hash Ribbons signals, Edwards stated that they still have incredible predictive power today. He also pointed out that various on-chain indicators are flashing rare bull signals, even after nearly three months of BTC price consolidation.
Other analyses suggest a classic post-halving “reaccumulation phase” is in progress, which typically results in an upside continuation. Edwards also noted that the current geopolitical and macroeconomic conditions favor cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin.
Edwards concluded by stating that the technical and fundamental data suggest Bitcoin’s price could go a lot higher. However, he noted that it may take some time to kick start the next upward trend, given that we are currently entering the summer months, which are typically a financial lull.