Key Points
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- Bitcoin’s 4-year halving cycles are often followed by significant market bull runs.
- Historical data suggests that halving periods could be a good time for long-term investors to buy Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle is frequently linked with subsequent cryptocurrency market bull runs, typically leading to new all-time highs for Bitcoin.
Many investors anticipate these halving events as potentially ideal times to invest in the world’s largest cryptocurrency.
Halving and Investment Opportunities
Senior analyst at K33 Research, Vetle Lunde, suggests that based on historical Bitcoin price data, the halvings could be a good opportunity for investors with longer time horizons.
Lunde explains that although the immediate post-halving performance tends to be slow, each halving has proven to be a solid point to enter the market.
He adds that the sweet spot usually occurs 150-400 days after the halving, where the effects of reduced miner selling pressure positively impact Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s Performance and Future Predictions
Bitcoin surpassed the $60,000 mark for the first time in over two years on Feb. 28, 47 days before the halving, and it has seen a 30% increase over the past week.
The Bitcoin halving reduces the rate at which new Bitcoin are issued into circulation every four years. The production of new Bitcoin will cease once 21 million coins are created by the year 2140, which will mark the year of the last Bitcoin halving.
Bryan Legend, investor and CEO of Hectic Labs, believes the pre-halving period can be a profitable time to hold Bitcoin. However, he acknowledges that timing the market to know when to exit at the peak is extremely challenging.
Bitcoin’s pre-halving rally to the $67,611 mark was largely supported by record inflows in the 10 new spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States.
James Butterfill, an analyst at CoinShares, states that total assets under management (AuM) are now very close to the all-time high at US $82.6bn, just shy of the US $86bn peak set early November.
According to the report, Bitcoin accounted for “94% of the inflows” at $1.72 billion, with U.S.-based funds continuing to dominate with net inflows totaling $1.88 billion.
Sergei Gorev, a risk manager at fintech platform YouHodler, said that Bitcoin ETF inflows are a significant part of the current rally, along with the pre-halving anticipation.
Lunde anticipates a brief correction after the halving, before Bitcoin resumes its price rally to new all-time highs.
He predicts that Bitcoin could see a 130-150% rally in the year following the halving, leading to a peak in the range of $125,000 – $150,000 in 2025.
Bryan Legend, CEO of Hectic Labs, estimates Bitcoin’s end-of-year price could reach around $80,000 to $85,000 in the worst case and $120,000 to $130,000 in the bullish case, depending mainly on macroeconomic conditions.