Key Points
- Today, the US PCE report came out showing a rise of 2.8% for April.
- Bitcoin is trading near $69k.
Bitcoin is trading near $69k, following the release of today’s PCE data in the US showing a 2.8% rise for April, just like estimated. BTC’s price reached over $68,900 when the report came out.
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The report shows the following important data shared by Bloomberg and Spencer Hakimian, founder of Tolou Capital Management:
- U.S. PCE Price Index (MOM) for April: actual: 0.3% vs. previous: 0.3%; estimate: 0.3%
- U.S PCE PRICE INDEX (YOY) for April: actual: 2.7% vs. previous: 2.7%; estimate: 2.7%
- U.S CORE PCE PRICE INDEX (MOM) (APR): actual: 0.2% vs. previous: 0.3%; estimate: 0.3%
- U.S CORE PCE PRICE INDEX (YOY) (APR): actual: 2.8% vs. previous: 2.8%; estimate: 2.8%
The PCE price index is also referred to as the PCE deflator, and this is a United States-wide indicator of the average increase in prices for all domestic personal consumption.
Crypto traders have been eagerly waiting for today’s PCE data, as the report can influence the price of BTC.
The country has been expecting macro data prints which involve jobless claims and the first revision of Q1 GDP, both being potential volatility catalysts for crypto and risk assets, especially if the results were not in line with economists’ expectations.
Economists expectations
The April Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index was expected to show that the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation remained sticky during the past month, something that could delay rate cuts even further in 2024.
Economists were expecting the overall PCE Price Index to rise 2.7% on the annual basis in April, the same rate of inflation as seen in March, according to FactSet’s consensus estimates.
Forecasts called for a 0.3% month-over-month increase, down only slightly from 0.32% in March.
A similar trend was also predicted for the core measure of PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices.
The consensus was for a 2.8% rise in the annual rate, which means numbers in line with March’s reading, and a -.30% increase in the monthly rate, slightly lower than March’s 0.31%.
Earlier, Scott Anderson, chief US economist at BMO Capital Markets stated that he did not expect “earth-shattering changes”. He was anticipating some modest improvement in the core measure from 0.3% to 0.2% on the month.
He also said that this would not be enough to get the Fed off the sidelines. Anderson also said that the Fed is still going to be in wait-and-see mode, as they try to argue whether monetary policy is restrictive enough to bring the PCE measures down to the 2% target.
Price pressures have improved dramatically over the past year, but progress has slowed significantly. Investors began this year looking ahead to six cuts from the central bank, but inflation reduced the expectations to just one or two cuts before the end of 2024.
April’s CPI data which is another mainstream measure of inflation, came in line with economists’ expectations this month showing a 3.4% inflation for April.
