Key Points
- This week’s macroeconomic events and the US election results could impact Bitcoin’s trajectory.
- BTC is now trading above $68,000.
This is an important week for the US and the world, as US elections will decide who will run the country for the next 4 years. The elections’ results and the Federal Reserve’s decision on potential upcoming rate cuts could affect Bitcoin’s and the crypto market’s trajectory.
Top 7 Events Potentially Affecting Bitcoin’s Price
Greeks.live recently shared a post via X, highlighting the important political and economic events set to take place this week:
- The Reserve of Australia will announce interest rate resolution and the monetary policy statement. (November 5)
- The US elections will take place, deciding the country’s fate for the next 4 years. (November 5)
- The Bank of Canada will publish the monetary policy meeting minutes. (November 6)
- The US Treasury will announce the debt issuance program for the new quarter. (November 6)
- The Bank of England will announce the interest rate resolution. (November 7)
- US initial jobless claims for the week are set to be announced. (November 7)
- The US Fed will announce its interest rate decision. (November 7)
The uncertainty around the elections in the US is high, and according to Polymarket data, Donald Trump’s chances dropped to 57% from previous levels of over 60%, while Kamala Harris has a 43% chance of winning.
The final results of the elections are expected to come in on November 6. Regarding the election results and their correlation to Bitcoin and crypto, so far, both candidates have shown strong support for the industry, especially Trump.
Also, another crucial event this week is the US Fed’s decision about potential interest rate cuts. According to CME Group, there are 99.9% chances of a rate cut of 25 bps.
Following this month’s rate cut, the next decision is scheduled for December, as highlighted by the Reuters press agency as well.
The decision about new upcoming rate cuts in the US is important, as history has shown increases in BTC’s price related to previous rate cuts.
BTC Price Trades Above $68,000
At the moment of writing this article, BTC is trading above $68,000, up by 0.4% in the past 24 hours.
BTC has experienced increased volatility lately, and its price dropped to $67,000 levels on November 3, following a rebound at today’s levels.
Last week, BTC reached prices above $73,000, fueled by whale accumulation, and a lengthy continuous inflow streak in US BTC ETFs.
The crypto products recorded inflows from October 11, until October 31, with a single day of outflows on October 22. On November 1, BTC ETFs saw another day of outflows at almost $55 million.
Last week, from October 28 to November 1, the crypto products recorded over $2.22 billion in inflows, marking their third largest inflow week since their inception. BTC ETFs saw their biggest week in March at $2.57 million in inflows, according to SoSoValue data.
Bitcoin’s recent price drop from prices above $73,000 was triggered by multiple factors including the Iran-Israel war.
In their recent post, Greeks.live also noted that Bitcoin’s short-term IV is currently at high levels around the US elections.
While at some points it seemed that Bitcoin’s recent price rally was correlated to Trump’s rising odds of winning the US elections, the correlation was not sustained 100% during the past two weeks. It remains to be seen how the results will affect BTC’s price this week.
However, considering that BTC’s monthly average return for November is over 40%, according to historical data, we might see a new ATH this month.
