Key Points
- Bernstein analysts predict Bitcoin’s bullish trajectory will resume post-halving, targeting $150,000 by 2025.
- Bitcoin halvings historically result in significant price fluctuations and often precede substantial bull runs.
Bernstein’s Bitcoin Projection
Research analysts from Bernstein anticipate that Bitcoin will regain its bullish trend after the halving event, with a projected value of $150,000 by 2025. They believe that the mining hash rates will adjust and ETF inflows will resume, which have been flat to negative over the past 10 days.
The analysts also predict that the integration of spot Bitcoin ETFs with wirehouses and RIAs will continue to create a structural demand for Bitcoin. They maintain their expectation for Bitcoin to reach a cycle high of $150,000 by 2025.
Bitcoin Halvings and Price Impact
Historically, Bitcoin halvings have resulted in significant price fluctuations. Though there isn’t a direct cause-and-effect relationship, these events often precede substantial bull runs in the Bitcoin market.
The Bernstein analysts note that halving events do not lead to Bitcoin price appreciation without new demand. They state that while miners will earn fewer Bitcoin in subsidy rewards post-halving and therefore have less to sell to the market, this potential sell pressure has fallen significantly over time.
They further add that demand catalysts often synchronize with new supply reductions following halving events. They cite post-pandemic liquidity and corporate purchases of Bitcoin by companies like Tesla, Square, and MicroStrategy in the 2020/21 cycle as examples. The current cycle is led by spot Bitcoin ETF approvals and leading global asset managers driving demand.
Miner Impact and Halving Countdown
Despite negative headlines on miner revenue impact and many stocks down 15-20% over the last 30 days, some miners are still at all-time highs in terms of U.S. dollar revenue. This provides a solid balance sheet pre-halving alongside relatively low debt.
Bernstein expects around 7% of the network hash rate to shut down post-halving as less efficient mining operations become unprofitable. The industry is expected to consolidate towards four leading public miners: CleanSpark, Marathon, Riot Platforms, and Cipher Mining.
The next Bitcoin halving event is now less than three days or 374 blocks away. Bitcoin halvings are programmed to occur automatically every 210,000 blocks, which is approximately every four years. Once a halving event occurs, miners receive 50% fewer Bitcoins as a subsidy reward for every block of transactions they mine and add to the blockchain. However, they continue to earn additional transaction fee rewards for each block mined as normal.