Key Points
- Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise, predicts lower volatility, increased portfolio allocations, and a Bitcoin price target over $250,000 ahead of the next halving.
- Hougan believes that ETFs, central bank involvement, and increased adoption will drive these changes.
Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise, has shared his predictions for the future of Bitcoin.
He made these predictions in anticipation of the next Bitcoin halving, expected to occur in April 2028.
Predictions for Bitcoin’s Future
Hougan’s predictions include lower volatility, increased portfolio allocations, exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows, central bank involvement, and a Bitcoin price target of over $250,000.
He believes that the volatility of Bitcoin has been decreasing as the cryptocurrency gains wider adoption.
This trend, he predicts, will accelerate due to the influence of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, like Bitwise.
ETFs attract a diverse range of investors, such as financial advisors and institutions, who are more likely to rebalance their portfolios and make steady investments.
Hougan suggests that these factors will introduce countercyclical flows that could reduce volatility.
Consequently, he expects the typical portfolio allocation to Bitcoin to increase, with a 5% or more allocation becoming the norm.
ETFs, Central Banks, and a $250,000 Price Target
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have already seen approximately $12.5 billion in net inflows since trading began on January 11.
However, Hougan believes this is just the beginning and expects further growth.
He also predicts that central banks will start allocating to Bitcoin within this halving cycle.
As Bitcoin is non-debt money and more functional than gold for payments and settlement, Hougan argues it will become increasingly attractive to governments.
He also suggests that a major central bank adopting Bitcoin as a reserve asset could significantly boost its price.
Hougan’s price target for Bitcoin is over $250,000 ahead of the next halving.
He expects this to be driven by the launch of ETFs, improved custody options, low correlations to stocks, and greater institutional adoption.
He concludes that at $250,000, Bitcoin would be a $5 trillion asset.