Key Points
- Bitcoin (BTC) price remains above $69,000 despite the largest quarterly Bitcoin futures options expiry events.
- Over $15.1 billion worth of cryptocurrency futures options have expired on Deribit on March 29.
Despite the largest quarterly Bitcoin futures options expiry events, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) continues to stay above the $69,000 mark. Hao Yang, the global head of derivatives trading at Bybit exchange, shared insights on the impact of these events.
Options Expiry and Its Impact
Yang explained that during the expiry time, people might roll over or unwind their hedging positions, which could slightly affect the price in the short term. On March 29, Deribit saw over $15.1 billion worth of cryptocurrency futures options expire. Of this amount, $9.53 billion represented the notional value of Bitcoin options set to expire, with a put/call ratio of 0.84 and a potential “max pain” price of $51,000.
While options expiry can trigger increased volatility, Yang clarified that the max pain price point does not accurately reflect Bitcoin’s long-term price potential. He likened it to a fancy gaming PC case that doesn’t directly impact the performance of the hardware inside. He stated that max pain is an indicator that offers some insight but has limited influence on Bitcoin’s actual price movement.
Minimal Price Impact Expected
Andrey Stoychev, the project manager at Nexo’s Prime Brokerage division, suggested that the price impact from the options expiry is expected to be minimal. He raised the question of whether the profits from the calls would be reinvested into new contracts and, if so, which strikes and maturities would be favored.
The price of Bitcoin fell 0.7% in the 24 hours leading up to 10:35 am UTC to trade at $69,924. Despite this, the first cryptocurrency is up over 11.9% on the monthly chart. Analysts suggest that the current pre-halving correction may be over if Bitcoin price can convert its old all-time high of $69,000 into support.