Key Points

Bitcoin reached a new record high of $109,400 on May 21, gaining over 26% in the past month.
The rally was catalyzed by the U.S.–China trade agreement, a pause on tariffs, and Russia–Ukraine ceasefire discussions.

Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $109,400, extending its recovery from April lows and continuing a broader rally driven by improving macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions.

According to data from TradingView, Bitcoin is up more than 26% over the past month, with the milestone coming just nine days after a temporary trade truce between the United States and China was announced.

The 90-day suspension of U.S. import tariffs, announced by the White House on May 12, has eased global market uncertainty.

Investors interpreted the deal as a sign of reduced economic risk, which spurred renewed capital inflows into both traditional and digital assets. The agreement cuts U.S. import tariffs from 25% to 10%, with reciprocal negotiations set to continue through the summer.

From April Lows to New Highs

Bitcoin’s surge comes after a steep decline to $74,434 on April 7, triggered by President Donald Trump’s initial tariff announcement on April 2. That move led to a significant sell-off across global markets, with the S&P 500 shedding more than $5 trillion in value – its sharpest drop on record.

Recovery began on April 9, when Trump declared “Liberation Day,” signaling a pivot toward economic diplomacy. Analysts at MN Consultancy described that day as the “climax of uncertainty,” with market sentiment improving steadily in its aftermath.

Strategic Factors Driving the Rally

Jag Kooner, Head of Derivatives at Bitfinex, noted that Bitcoin entered May with a “near-flawless setup,” driven by geopolitical de-escalation, improving regulatory signals, and abundant liquidity. The announcement of Russia–Ukraine ceasefire talks on May 19 further removed geopolitical risk, allowing markets to transition to a “risk-on” posture.

“Rather than acting purely as a hedge during crises, Bitcoin is now viewed as a high-conviction risk asset during periods of macro stability,” said Kooner. The flow of capital into Bitcoin and tech stocks underscores a shift in investor behavior.

In parallel, U.S. legislation supporting stablecoins has also improved the regulatory outlook for digital assets, contributing to the broader bullish sentiment.

What’s Next for BTC?

At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading around $108,777, up 4% in the past 24 hours, based on data from The Block. Market watchers say that maintaining a daily close above $108,000 is key for a continued push higher. Neutral funding rates and stable open interest are seen as important factors for sustaining momentum.

Some analysts forecast a potential move toward $114,000–$120,000 in the near term, while others predict $130,000+ before year-end, particularly if macro or regulatory catalysts emerge.