Metric | Value |
|---|---|
Stablecoin supply change (30d) | -$14.2B |
USDT market cap | $175.8B |
USDC market cap | $69.7B |
USDT price | $0.9992 |
ETF net outflows (20 sessions) | $1.6B |
BTC price | $74,441 |
Total stablecoin supply has fallen $14.2B over the past 30 days, the fastest contraction since June 2022, according to Glassnode's Week On-chain report, with data through November 9. The drop comes as Bitcoin trades at $74,441, below the average cost basis of short-term holders.
What the data shows
Glassnode describes stablecoins as the cash of the crypto market - the dollars traders hold on exchanges and on-chain before they buy. A shrinking supply means holders are redeeming stablecoins for dollars and taking that cash out of the market, which leaves less fuel for a rally.
The same pressure shows in Tether, which trades slightly below $1. Per CoinGecko data, USDT sits at $0.9992 with a market cap of $175.8B, while USDC trades at $0.9996 with a market cap of $69.7B.
Stablecoin | Price | Market cap | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|---|
USDT | $0.9992 | $175.8B | $42.3B |
USDC | $0.9996 | $69.7B | $11.1B |
ETF outflows add to the pressure
US spot Bitcoin ETFs have turned to redemptions. Over the past 20 sessions, the funds saw $1.6B in net outflows, and on November 9 the total crossed the $1.5B mark Glassnode uses to define an outflow stretch.
The Coinbase Premium, which compares the BTC price on Coinbase with the global price, has stayed negative on a 30-day average through the whole slide from the September high. The discount is now the deepest since February.
Where Bitcoin stands
- BTC: $74,441, down 7.4% over 7 days, below the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $75,600
- Only about 35% of short-term holder coins are in profit, versus nearly all at the September high
- The True Market Mean sits at $77,500 - a reclaim would put about half of short-term holder coins back in profit
- The June low is at $58,500 - the August trend change holds as long as price stays above it
What it means for you
Glassnode notes that stablecoins, ETFs and US buyers all show money leaving the market. A return of the 30-day stablecoin supply change to growth would be the first sign that new money is coming in.
On the other side, the slow grind from the September high has cleared most long liquidation levels near price. The largest liquidation cluster below price sits between $59,500 and $62,600, while the largest cluster of shorts above price sits near $87,500.
Resting buy orders within 5% of price have outweighed sell orders on Binance and Coinbase in every hour since November 5, with the largest block of bids between $68,000 and $72,500. Two wallet cohorts - those holding 100-1,000 BTC and 1,000-10,000 BTC - started accumulating over the past week, while every other cohort is still reducing its holdings.