Arbitrum, a Layer-2 blockchain network, is on the brink of a pivotal event with the release of $2.32 billion worth of vested Arbitrum (ARB) tokens slated for March 16. This event is poised to mark a significant milestone for the platform, with implications for the broader cryptocurrency market.

Details of the Upcoming Arbitrum Token Unlock

Token Unlocks, a data provider, reports that approximately 1.1 billion locked ARB tokens, making up about 76% of the token’s circulating supply, will become available. A substantial portion of these tokens, 673.5 million valued at roughly $1.41 billion, is allocated to the Arbitrum team and advisers. Meanwhile, investors will see 438.25 million tokens, equivalent to about $915 million, released into the market.

This event, known as a “Cliff Unlock,” will introduce a significant lump sum of tokens into the market at the deadline, rather than distributing them gradually. Unlocks are typically utilized to prevent early investors or team members from selling large quantities of a cryptocurrency at once. Following March 16, Arbitrum plans to continue releasing a set amount of tokens every four weeks for four years.

The cryptocurrency community is closely monitoring the event, anticipating potential price volatility for ARB tokens. While some predict an increase in short positions against the token, others have already liquidated their holdings in anticipation.

Market Impact and Historical Precedents

Unlock events generally increase market liquidity but are often viewed as bearish catalysts for a cryptocurrency’s price. According to a study by The Tie, unlocks exceeding 100% of a token’s average daily trading volume tend to negatively affect its price.

Conversely, some market observers point to previous examples, like Solana’s SOL token, which saw its price rise following a similar unlock event, defying expectations of a downturn.

In the context of a generally positive trend in the Layer-2 sector, ARB has lagged behind its competitors, becoming the weakest performer among the top five L2 tokens with a decline of over 2% during the reporting period. Despite this, Arbitrum remains the largest Ethereum-based Layer-2 network, with a total locked asset value of $3.6 billion.