The surge in Bitcoin’s price, rising from $16,500 to $25,000, is believed to have been caused by a short squeeze in the futures market and the recent positive changes in macroeconomics. However, despite the increase in prices, available data indicates that numerous potential buyers, including whales, remained on the sidelines.

The recent price increase for Bitcoin to over $25,000 saw a sharp climb in value that was very similar to the 2019 bull market. During this period, the cryptocurrency saw a 330% surge from a low of $3,250 up to nearly $14,000. This year has seen an even more impressive climb of 60% from its November 2022 low point.

Indicators related to on-chain and market activity in comparison to the 2019 rally are sending mixed signals about whether or not Bitcoin’s recent surge will persist. Despite this uncertainty, there are compelling reasons to suggest that the market has reached a pivotal moment, where it may either transition into a robust bull market or revert to a protracted bear trend.

Bitcoin’s price surpassed the 200-day moving average (MA)

Bitcoin has crossed the 200-day moving average (MA) at $19,600, which could incentivize traders to initiate long positions. The 200-day MA has previously acted as a pivot line between bull and bear markets, with bullish breakouts occurring above it, and vice versa.

Typically, BTC/USD retests the 200-day MA after a breakout, leading to a potential correction towards $19,500. However, in 2019, the price continued to rise without experiencing any pullback to the 200-day MA.

Bitcoin traders are keeping a close eye on the 200-week moving average, which currently stands at $25,100. This level has historically been a crucial support level for Bitcoin, and a breach below it in November 2022 signaled the start of the recent bear market. Reclaiming this level could prompt technical buyers to enter the market and contribute to further price appreciation.

Bitcoin’s stablecoin supply ratio (SSR) near 2019 peak

The stablecoin supply ratio (SSR) oscillator, which measures the buying power of the market, shows that the recent surge in Bitcoin’s price has led to overbought conditions.

This indicator compares the market capitalization of Bitcoin with the supply of stablecoins and low readings suggest higher purchasing power for stablecoins.

Conversely, a spike in the metric indicates overbought conditions. The current spike in the SSR oscillator towards levels not seen since 2019 and 2021 suggests that the positive trend may soon come to an end, although there is still a chance of one final push toward the $30,000 psychological level.

The current Bitcoin surge is raising concerns due to the absence of whale buying. In contrast to the 2019 rally, whales have been selling during the current uptrend.

This divergence between the number of whales and the price is causing concerns about the sustainability of the positive trend. If the market is only being driven by small investors, the rally may be less stable and more vulnerable to sudden downturns.

However, it is important to note that this is only one factor to consider, and other indicators may provide a more complete picture of the market’s current state.

The crucial turning point in the bull-bear trend

Additionally, the current market conditions are indicating a potential bull trend as the price has moved above the average buying levels of both short and long-term holders. This is a significant signal of a potential trend reversal as the on-chain oscillators return to equilibrium.

However, while a weekly close above $25,100 could encourage derivatives and technical traders to buy into the current rally, caution must be exercised as the market may be reaching overheated conditions. Therefore, a quick correction toward lower support levels cannot be ruled out.

In summary, the metrics suggest that the market has reached a crucial turning point, and a sustained uptrend is possible if the price holds above the key support levels at $21,800, $20,800, and $19,600. Nevertheless, traders should remain vigilant as the market may experience a quick correction toward lower support levels.