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Bitcoin halving 2024 predictions point to $100,000 milestone

Given this historical trend, many experts believe the next halving in 2024 could trigger another price surge

Manuela ManuelaVerified Author
Aug 15, 2023
3 min. read
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The cryptocurrency market is known for its volatility and unpredictability, making it a challenging task to forecast future prices. However, the Bitcoin halving event – a mechanism ingrained in Bitcoin’s code that halves the reward miners receive for adding new transactions to the blockchain – has historically had a significant impact on Bitcoin’s price.

This process will see the rewards for miners halve, dropping from the current 6.25 BTC to a mere 3.125 BTC per block. The consequent reduction in Bitcoin‘s emission rate could potentially alter supply and demand dynamics, prompting many analysts to revisit their price predictions.

The significance of Bitcoin halving

Bitcoin halving, scheduled to occur approximately every four years, is a major event that significantly impacts the supply of new Bitcoins entering the market. The reduced supply often leads to an increase in demand, thereby driving up the price.

Historically, Bitcoin has experienced substantial price increases following each halving event. For instance, the first halving in 2012 saw Bitcoin’s price rise from around $12 to over $1,000 within a year. Similarly, the second halving in 2016 was followed by a bull run in 2017, pushing Bitcoin’s price close to $20,000.

Expert predictions post-halving

While many in the market are inclined to predict an immediate bullish surge pre-halving, notable Bitcoin investor and Onramp co-founder, Jesse Myers, begs to differ. Voicing his insights on X (the platform previously known as Twitter), Myers stressed that the market will likely “price in” the implications of the halving after the event rather than before.

Myers stated, “Bitcoin won’t surge to $100k before the next halving.” He bolstered his statement with a critique of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMF), which postulates that markets always encapsulate the true value of an asset. Disputing its accuracy, Myers emphasized, “Instead, the market will price-in the changed reality over the 12-18 months post-halving.”

#Bitcoin won’t surge to $100k before the next halving…

Because the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) is wrong.

Instead, the market will price-in the changed reality over the 12-18 months post-halving.

— Jesse Myers (Croesus 🔴) (@Croesus_BTC) August 14, 2023

Historical patterns as predictors

Historical trends provided by the trading team Stockmoney Lizards shed light on Bitcoin’s performance patterns concerning halvings. According to their data, the crypto has typically taken no more than 240 days post-halving to set fresh record highs.

Reaffirming this trend, Stockmoney Lizards mentioned to their X followers, “It is all very predictable. New all-time high will occur shortly after Halving in 2024. Accumulation phase.”

BTCUSD annotated chart
BTC/USD annotated chart | Stockmoney Lizards/X

This sentiment, however, contrasts sharply with other prominent figures in the crypto space, such as Robert Kiyosaki, acclaimed author of “Rich Dad Poor Dad”, who remains bullish on Bitcoin reaching the coveted six-figure mark even before the halving.

Given this historical trend, many experts believe the next halving in 2024 could trigger another price surge. A report suggests that Bitcoin could potentially reach a staggering $100,000.

This prediction aligns with the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model – a popular tool used to predict Bitcoin’s price. The S2F model, which considers the increased scarcity of Bitcoin post-halving, also indicates a potential price of $100,000 for Bitcoin after the 2024 halving.

While these forecasts provide valuable insights, they are not guaranteed. The cryptocurrency market is influenced by numerous factors, including regulatory developments, technological advancements, and overall market sentiment.

Tags: Bitcoin (BTC)Halving

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