Key Points
- Bitcoin (BTC) is struggling to break through major resistance, keeping its price below $60,000.
- Bitcoin’s 100-day moving average (MA) and the short-term holder realized price (STH-RP) are key trendlines affecting its price.
Bitcoin’s price is facing significant resistance, preventing a rebound above $60,000. Despite recovering by up to 6.2% from the week’s lows, Bitcoin has yet to break through crucial trendlines.
Moving Average as a Barrier
Bitcoin experienced a 23% pullback from all-time highs in April and May. The chances of a return to price discovery for Bitcoin (BTC) remain low. Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX, predicts rangebound trading below $70,000 for BTC/USD through August. However, before this can happen, the $60,000 mark must be reclaimed, a task proving difficult due to prevailing trendlines.
Bitcoin’s 100-day moving average (MA), currently at $59,930 as of May 3, is a key market support. This trendline has acted as a support since October 2023 and provided a floor through the first half of 2023’s Bitcoin bull market. However, the price is now printing full daily candles below it. Trading resource Material Indicators agrees that bulls are encountering strong technical resistance at the 100-Day MA.
Short-term Holders’ Impact
Another hurdle for Bitcoin’s price recovery is the short-term holder realized price (STH-RP), which refers to the aggregate cost basis of more speculative Bitcoin holders. When the price returns to STH-RP, it can act as solid support, as it did for much of the bull market since early 2023. This metric forms another key trendline concentrated within close proximity to $60,000.
Caleb Franzen, CEO of Cubic Analysts, considers STH-RP as one of the resistance levels to clear. He states, “My personal line in the sand for ‘risk-on’ is a daily close above $61k. Lots of work to do.”
