As the cryptocurrency market watches closely, the expiry of significant Bitcoin and Ethereum options contracts is anticipated to potentially sway market prices.
This Friday marks another critical Bitcoin options contract expiry day, with the digital asset having surpassed the $50,000 mark earlier this week. The question on many investors’ minds is whether the billion-dollar-plus notional value expiry will propel prices even higher.
Approximately 21,150 Bitcoin options contracts are set to expire on February 16, marking a slight increase from last week’s expiry.
Following last week’s contract closures, Bitcoin achieved a pivotal strike price of $50,000. The notional value of the expiring Bitcoin contracts this week is estimated at $1.1 billion, as reported by Deribit. The current put/call ratio stands at 0.90, indicating a balanced distribution between long and short contract sellers.
The $50,000 strike price is particularly noteworthy, with 15,766 calls and a notional value of $822 million. At this strike price, the put/call ratio is significantly lower at 0.24, suggesting that bullish sentiment outweighs bearish positions.
Interest has also surged at higher strike prices, notably at $60,000, $65,000, and even $75,000, with nearly $2.4 billion in long-contract open interest across these levels.
According to Vetle Lunde, a senior analyst at K33 Research, the options market is gearing up for continued momentum in the upcoming months, with recent flows indicating a strong bias towards bullish price movements.
This shift comes as the excitement around spot ETFs diminishes, with market dynamics now influenced by the upcoming Bitcoin halving and potential interest rate cuts. Despite this, inflows into spot BTC ETFs have hit a record $4 billion, factoring in outflows from Grayscale.
In parallel, the Ethereum options market is also bracing for a significant expiry event on February 16, with around 198,700 contracts due to close. These contracts have a combined notional value of $565 million and a put/call ratio of 0.62.
The largest open interest for Ethereum is at the $3,000 strike price, amounting to $585 million and 205,000 calls, though substantial interest remains at the $2,400 strike price with $460 million in open interest.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin prices were hovering just over $52,000, having reached a two-year peak of $52,800 on February 15. Ethereum, leading the market gains, saw a 2.5% increase, reaching $2,860, its highest value since May 2022.