Key Points
- Analysts at Steno Research predict the Bitcoin halving event in 2024 to be a “buy the rumor, sell the news” event.
- Post-halving, the Bitcoin value could dip below its price at the halving time within the first 90 days.
Steno Research analysts anticipate the 2024 Bitcoin halving event to significantly influence the crypto market.
They believe it will follow a “buy the rumor, sell the news” pattern, similar to previous halving events.
Bitcoin Halving History
Bitcoin’s history includes three halving events.
In 2012, miner rewards were reduced from 50 BTC to 25 BTC, then to 12.5 BTC in 2016, and to 6.25 BTC in 2020.
Steno Research suggests that the 2024 event will mirror the 2016 halving, where selling pressure increased up to four months later.
The firm predicts a surge in Bitcoin’s value leading up to the halving event.
However, they anticipate the value could fall below its halving price within the first 90 days post-halving.
Comparisons and Predictions
The analysts identified similarities between Bitcoin’s price performance around the 2016 halving, suggesting a similar pattern for the upcoming event.
The report noted that Bitcoin’s price stayed below its pre-halving level for the entire 90 days following the halving.
Specifically, on the 90th day post-halving, Bitcoin was priced 8.4% lower than before the halving, according to Steno Analyst Mads Eberhardt.
CryptoQuant data indicates that Bitcoin daily mining rewards are at their highest ever as the price trades close to its all-time high.
This suggests that even though the number of issued BTC will be the smallest yet, after the halving, the dollar-measured value of this issuance will be high.
The report further noted that miners are likely to sell all their Bitcoin over time to cover mining operation costs.
This contributes to the sell-side pressure that causes BTC price to correct after months post-halving.
The halving event is considered a bullish catalyst for Bitcoin’s price once selling pressure from miners reduces.
Eberhardt stated, “We believe the real bullish momentum of the halving will become apparent once the initial market adjustments have settled, and the “weak hands” – those investors who bought in anticipating quick gains, including some ETF investors – have exited.”
Alex Wice, another analyst, believes the Bitcoin halving will cause a repricing that is expected to send the price ballistic, arguing that even though people know about it, “it is never fully priced in.”
Bitget Wallet CEO expects some “short-term volatility post-halving” but that the bullishness arising from the event could lead to “strong levels of interest and growth in the wider Web3 ecosystem.”
