Key Points
- Bitcoin (BTC) is undergoing a significant correction phase after a strong price rally in 2024.
- Historical trends and current indicators suggest a possible 35% price drop by June.
After a strong price rally in 2024, Bitcoin (BTC) is now in a major correction phase. The BTC/USD pair has seen a decrease of about 13.5% from its year-to-date and all-time high of nearly $74,000.
Bitcoin’s Market Correction
The current price decline of Bitcoin seems to be a typical bull market correction. This allows for market adjustments and consolidation of gains before possibly moving higher. Previous corrections in the Bitcoin market have seen prices drop by 20-40%, suggesting a similar possibility during the 2024 bull market.
As of March 22, Bitcoin’s weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) was approximately 77. RSI levels above 70 often indicate overbought conditions, suggesting a potential price correction as traders may sell off their holdings. Historically, weekly RSI levels above 70 have preceded strong price corrections towards the 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA).
Bitcoin’s Price Trajectory
In 2024, Bitcoin’s price trajectory seems poised for an upward trend, targeting the ascending trendline resistance around $84,000 by early April or May. After this potential peak, there’s a significant chance it will pull back towards its 50-week EMA near $40,000. This suggests a 2020-like corrective phase following the ascent. Therefore, BTC’s price risks dropping 35% by June from current price levels around $64,350.
Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) data also signals a potential price crash. NUPL represents the difference between market cap and realized cap divided by market cap. A NUPL reading above zero indicates investors are in profit, and an increasing trend in value means more investors are beginning to be in profit. This phase indicates an increasing reason to take profit, which leads to an increase in sell pressure.
Analysts have different views on Bitcoin’s current situation. Analyst Rekt Capital believes that Bitcoin is in a “Danger Zone” following its latest price drop. This area is significant because it aligns with the region where Bitcoin has historically experienced retracements before its halving events. Rekt Capital anticipates BTC’s price to drop towards the $40,000-42,000 area before halving in April. On the other hand, trader Aksel Kibar’s analysis is relatively bullish, predicting the BTC price to stabilize around $57,500. This downside target coincides with the upper trendline of Bitcoin’s previous ascending channel trend.
