Key Points
- The fourth Bitcoin halving could trigger a highly bullish cycle, influenced by historical patterns and spot Bitcoin ETFs.
- Bitcoin’s all-time high before the halving, along with institutional inflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs, have created an extremely bullish setup for Bitcoin.
The fourth Bitcoin halving took place on April 20, and it may signal the beginning of an extremely bullish cycle for Bitcoin.
This prediction is based on historical chart patterns and the presence of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Bitcoin’s Price Surge
For the first time in cryptocurrency history, Bitcoin’s price reached a new all-time high of more than $73,600 on March 13, before the halving event.
Historically, Bitcoin’s price has surged to new highs between 518 to 546 days after previous halving events.
The pre-halving all-time high, coupled with institutional inflows from ten United States spot Bitcoin ETFs, has created an extremely bullish environment for Bitcoin.
Sukhveer Sanghera, founder and CEO of Earth Wallet, has stated that all fundamental aspects of Bitcoin’s value proposition are stronger than ever before due to a combination of factors.
These factors include nearly all Bitcoin being mined, early investment via ETFs, increasing demand for inflation hedges, and increased utility.
Bitcoin’s Future Performance
Despite a 5.6% fall on the weekly chart, Bitcoin’s price remains above $63,600.
The first cryptocurrency has only risen 2.85% in the past month but has rallied over 50% since the start of 2024.
While Bitcoin’s price action is expected to be bullish in the long term, halvings are usually followed by short-term corrections.
Bitcoin’s price could end the current drawdown if it manages to rise above the $65,000 resistance, according to Temujin Louie, the CEO of Wanchain.
The slowdown in Bitcoin’s price over the past month is mainly due to slowing Bitcoin accumulation in the ten U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Net inflows have turned negative in the week of the halving.
The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced $398 million worth of negative net outflows during the halving week, a decrease from over $199 million worth of net positive inflows in the previous week.
Despite the temporary slump, the ten Bitcoin ETFs have collectively amassed over 835,000 BTC worth $53.5 billion, which is 4.24% of the current Bitcoin supply.
The narrative surrounding Bitcoin’s price action remains positive, despite the temporary slump in ETF inflows.
This signals new investors preparing to gain BTC exposure, according to Jonas Simanavicius, co-founder and CTO at Syntropy.
Simanavicius added that Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a “hedge against political tensions” amid escalating global conflicts, which could bolster its status as a safe haven asset.
