Bitcoin is poised to record gains for the fifth consecutive month, potentially marking its longest winning streak since the surge in activity during the early days of the pandemic, which was spurred by expansive monetary policies.
The preeminent cryptocurrency has seen an approximate 2% rise in January, a period characterized by notable volatility triggered by the debut of the first U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and evolving expectations of monetary policy.
If Bitcoin maintains its trajectory, this would be the most prolonged sequence of monthly improvements since the six-month span from October 2020 to March 2021, as Bloomberg data indicates. The token reached a peak of nearly $69,000 in November 2021, setting an all-time high.
The landscape shifted with the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs from major issuers like BlackRock Inc. and Fidelity Investments, which hit the market on January 11. Prior to these launches, Bitcoin had surged almost 160% in anticipation that the ETFs would usher in a wave of new investors.
However, BTC experienced a downturn of roughly 21% over a 12-day period post-launch, with investors closely observing the performance of these ETFs.
The $21 billion Grayscale Bitcoin Trust underwent a conversion to an ETF from a closed-end fund format on the same day, which initially led to investor withdrawals. Since then, the rate of these outflows has slowed, aiding Bitcoin’s recovery of some of its losses.
The deceleration of withdrawals from the Grayscale fund is seen as a significantly positive indicator for market sentiment, noted Sean Farrell, head of digital-asset strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors LLC.
Collectively, the 10 ETFs have garnered a net of $1 billion to date, with Bloomberg highlighting this cohort as having the most successful ETF launch in history, according to both trading and flow metrics.
As the market digests these developments, all eyes are on the upcoming Federal Reserve interest-rate decision. With investors poised on the fence about a potential cut in March, any substantial shifts in these expectations could directly influence Bitcoin, as well as the broader crypto markets, due to their known sensitivity to liquidity perceptions and sentiment changes.