Key Points
- Post-halving, Bitcoin’s price is predicted to decrease, as per JPMorgan analysts.
- The halving event could potentially impact Bitcoin miners and the Bitcoin mining hashrate.
JPMorgan analysts anticipate a decline in the price of Bitcoin following the halving event.
They believe that the event’s impact has already been reflected in the current market price.
Reasons for the Predicted Price Dip
The analysts cite multiple reasons for this expected drop.
One of them is the “overbought conditions” of Bitcoin.
An analysis of open interest in Bitcoin futures indicates this.
Moreover, Bitcoin’s price is significantly higher than JPMorgan’s volatility-adjusted price of $45,000 compared to gold.
The price also exceeds the projected production cost post-halving of $42,000.
The lukewarm crypto venture capital funding this year could also contribute to a price decline post-halving.
At present, the price of Bitcoin is approximately $61,500.
Impact on Bitcoin Miners
The halving event, which is expected to happen this week, will reduce the issuance rewards for Bitcoin miners.
The current reward of 6.25 BTC per block will be halved to 3.125.
This reduction is expected to affect Bitcoin miners and the Bitcoin mining hashrate, or compute power.
“As unprofitable Bitcoin miners exit the Bitcoin network, we anticipate a significant drop in the hashrate and consolidation among Bitcoin miners,” the analysts predict.
This could result in a higher share for publicly-listed Bitcoin miners.
Post-halving, some Bitcoin mining firms might consider moving to regions with lower energy costs, such as Latin America or Africa.
This would be an attempt to repurpose their inefficient mining rigs for salvage value.
However, mining Bitcoin hard fork cryptocurrencies is deemed “highly unlikely” due to the rigs’ specific design for mining Bitcoin.
Even if they do, it is likely that they would remain unprofitable due to the lower market cap and liquidity of these cryptocurrencies compared to Bitcoin.