J.P. Morgan Asset Management has put a range on bitcoin returns for the first time in the new edition of its Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (LTCMA), built on data as of September 2026. BTC still sits outside the report's main covariance matrices.
What the report says about bitcoin
The bank's asset management arm writes in the report summary that "for the first time" it puts a range on bitcoin returns, but does "not yet" include the asset in its main covariance matrices.
The actual range is not disclosed in the public summary. The report covers return forecasts over a 10-15 year horizon for equities, bonds, real assets and alternatives.
The backdrop: a $15T investment surge
The central theme of this edition is a $15 trillion global capex "supernova", centered on AI and running through 2040. J.P. Morgan's estimated effects:
- Total factor productivity rises 50%, to 120 basis points
- US real GDP growth forecast climbs to 2.1%
- Developed world nominal growth reaches 4.2%
- The most favorable GDP-to-inflation mix since the pandemic
Three forces drive the forecasts: economic nationalism, technology adoption and capital "rewiring" - shifts in public and private capital flows driven by rising domestic investment. The report flags that economic nationalism also brings a risk of inflation volatility.
J.P. Morgan calls it the best developed world growth outlook in 15 years.
Forecasts for the other assets
Asset | Forecast annual return |
|---|---|
US large cap equities | 7.5% (+80 bps) |
Global aggregate bonds | 5.3% |
Global transportation | 8.1% |
Global core real estate | 7.9% |
Global infrastructure | 7.1% |
Balanced global stock-bond portfolio | 7.0% (+60 bps) |
Bitcoin | range, not disclosed in summary |
Diversified hedge funds get a 140 bps upgrade on sustained alpha trends and higher rates. A portfolio with 30% in diversified alternatives reaches 7.5% returns and a Sharpe ratio 21% higher than a simple balanced portfolio.
The balanced global stock-bond portfolio rises 60 bps, to 7.0%, but higher stock-bond correlation demands further diversification, the report says.
The global aggregate bond forecast has climbed from a 2.1% low in 2021 to 5.3% - the highest in two decades. Profit margins above 15% pushed the US large cap forecast up 80 bps, to 7.5%, and developed market equity forecasts now overtake emerging market forecasts.