Key Points
- The upcoming Bitcoin halving event is not yet factored into current prices, according to an industry analyst.
- Contrarily, Coinbase analysts believe the event’s impact may already be priced in by savvy traders.
Matt Balensweig, Head of Go Network at BitGo, has offered a new perspective on the anticipated Bitcoin halving event. Balensweig suggests that the event, which is set to bring about significant alterations in the supply and demand dynamics of the digital asset, is not yet priced in.
Halving’s Impact on Bitcoin’s Supply and Demand
Balensweig argues that certain events, including the upcoming halving, trigger substantial shifts in supply and demand dynamics within exchange order books. He believes that the halving will exemplify this trend.
According to Balensweig, these events lead to tangible changes in supply and demand mechanics on exchange order books. He added that traders will try to position themselves ahead of the event. However, when the event occurs, there will be less daily supply on the exchange order books, which, assuming constant demand, will lead to bid-side pressure.
Differing Opinions on the Halving Event
Balensweig’s viewpoint is in stark contrast to that of Coinbase analysts David Duong and David Han. They argue that the upcoming halving differs from previous ones as it occurs shortly after Bitcoin reached its all-time high of over $73,000 in mid-March.
The analysts from Coinbase suggest that this is the first halving cycle where Bitcoin breached its all-time high before the halving, which could mean savvy traders have already priced in the effect.
The anticipated Bitcoin halving is expected to take place on Saturday, April 20. The event occurs every four years, and it’s a mechanism coded into Bitcoin’s blockchain that cuts the block reward miners earn in half. This time, each new block of Bitcoin that’s mined roughly every ten minutes will yield 3.125, down from the current 6.25 BTC block reward.
Historically, many of Bitcoin’s gains have occurred 12 to 18 months after a halving, when newly diminishing supply accompanied surging demand. However, this case is different due to the surging demand resulting from the introduction of 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs.