Key Points
- Bitcoin’s (BTC) price exceeded $65,000 on May 6, indicating the post-halving “danger zone” could be over.
- Analysts predict more upside for BTC, with long-term holders finished selling and a new accumulation phase potentially starting.
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) soared past the $65,000 mark on May 6. This has led analysts to speculate that the post-halving “danger zone” may be behind us, with a brighter future for BTC on the horizon.
Post-Halving “Danger Zone” Over?
The post-halving “danger zone” refers to a three-week period after the halving event. Historically, this period is associated with downside volatility below the re-accumulation range.
Crypto analyst Rekt Capital believes that with Bitcoin’s price now above the current re-accumulation range of roughly $60,000, the post-halving danger zone could be over.
During the 2016 bull cycle, Bitcoin produced an 11% downside wick 21 days post-halving, marking the start of a price reversal. Rekt Capital noted that history repeated itself in this cycle, with Bitcoin producing a -6% downside wick below its respective Range Low in the 15 days after the Halving.
Higher BTC Prices Expected
Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo also anticipates higher BTC prices based on the Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, indicating investor sentiment, rose to 71/100, signaling “greed,” up from 43/100, or “fear,” on May 2.
Outflows from the 11 United States spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have contributed to Bitcoin’s correction. The U.S. ETFs recorded their highest week of outflows since launch, with nearly $900 million in net cumulative outflows over the past week.
Long-Term Holders Stopped Selling?
Data suggests that long-term holders (LTH) at the $70,000 price have finished selling to new investors. This could signal the start of a new active accumulation phase, according to CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr.
This could significantly reduce Bitcoin’s sell pressure, leading to a gradual climb to new highs, said Eitan Katz, the founder of Kima, a decentralized money transfer protocol.
However, Bitcoin could remain subdued in the short-term, due to concerns over inflation and dampened expectations for rate cuts, according to Mithil Thakore, the CEO of Velar, a Bitcoin-native liquidity protocol.
After the current short-term consolidation, Thakore expects Bitcoin price to reach $100,000 before the end of 2024. He believes that anticipated interest rate reductions, renewed demand in ETFs, and advancements in Bitcoin Layer 2 solutions may fuel a resurgence, potentially propelling Bitcoin to new all-time highs and the coveted $100,000 milestone.