Key Points
- Bitcoin’s 200-day moving average has reached an all-time high, indicating a bullish long-term outlook.
- The 200-week moving average, another long-term trend indicator, is also at a record high.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) 200-day moving average has hit a record high of $50,178. This is a significant technical indicator for predicting long-term price trends of Bitcoin.
This peak was recorded on May 6. The rise comes as Bitcoin is recovering from a post-halving price dip, which saw the cryptocurrency’s value drop to as low as $56,800 after the network’s block rewards were halved on April 20.
Understanding the 200-day moving average
The 200-day simple moving average (SMA) is calculated by summing up the closing price of Bitcoin over the last 200 days and dividing it by 200. This process smooths out short-term price fluctuations and provides a long-term trend indicator.
When Bitcoin prices are above this indicator, it usually suggests a bullish long-term trend. Conversely, when prices fall below the 200-day moving average, it indicates a bearish long-term trend.
On May 6, Bitcoin enthusiast Anthony Pompliano spoke on CNBC’s Squawk Box about the 200-day moving average exceeding $50,000 for the first time. He emphasized that despite daily price volatility, Bitcoin’s long-term trend is still upward.
Other indicators also bullish
Analyst Willy Woo’s price models show that the 200-week moving average, another long-term trend indicator, is also at an all-time high, just over $34,000. This suggests an even more bullish yearly trend outlook.
The price of Bitcoin crossed the 200-week moving average level in mid-October and has remained above it. Spot prices are also significantly higher than the realized price (RP) indicator, which is around $29,000. The RP is a measure of the value of all Bitcoins at the price they were last transacted on-chain, divided by the number of BTC in circulation.
However, the shorter-term 50-day moving average has dipped slightly from its peak in mid-April as BTC dropped from its mid-March all-time high.
Pompliano also noted that the Grayscale spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) posted its first inflow on May 3, with an inflow of $63 million. This follows net outflows of more than $17.5 billion since it was converted from a trust to a spot ETF in mid-January. The fund’s momentum continued on April 6 with a smaller inflow of $3.9 million.
