Key Points
- Bitcoin (BTC) might experience a two-month price consolidation period following the halving, according to Bitfinex analysts.
- The positive impact on Bitcoin’s price due to the halving will likely be seen in future months.
Analysts at the cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex have predicted that Bitcoin (BTC) could undergo up to two months of price consolidation after the halving.
Bitcoin’s Price Action Benchmark
The Bitfinex Alpha market report suggests that Bitcoin may continue to set the price action standard for the crypto market in May. It could also serve as the primary indicator for the total cryptocurrency market cap.
The report indicates that the macroeconomic environment is more robust than in previous years, with a low likelihood of rate cuts in the short term. It also notes that consumers and businesses are now more informed about the state of the underlying economy compared to previous crypto market cycles.
Post-Halving Impact on Bitcoin’s Price
The report suggests that any positive effect on Bitcoin’s price following the halving, which has reduced the supply of new BTC to the market, will become apparent in the coming months. “At this point, the economy is also expected to be performing better, having achieved a soft landing and avoiding a recession, providing further impetus to crypto assets,” the analysts wrote.
Many cryptocurrency traders share similar views on Bitcoin’s recent consolidation from its all-time highs over a month ago. Michaël van de Poppe, founder of trading firm MNTrading, suggests that Bitcoin’s dominance may have peaked as traders begin to shift liquidity to altcoins. Crypto trader Matthew Hyland echoed this, also highlighting Bitcoin market dominance losing major support.
The Bitfinex Alpha report also delved into the technical details of Bitcoin’s dropping market dominance. It mentions that Bitcoin halvings historically see attention shift towards altcoins which rally and gain market share.
The report states, “This shift occurs as Bitcoin’s reduced supply growth rate is seen as a long-term bullish development, which increases investor risk appetite, leading investors to seek potential higher returns from alternative cryptocurrencies.”
Ethereum’s (ETH) recent market performance has seen it outperform Bitcoin in gains for two consecutive weeks, a metric which last occurred in February 2023. Bitfinex analysts add that a 7.5% increase in the ETH/BTC metric marks ETH’s strongest weekly gain against Bitcoin since the start of the year.
The report also highlights Ether’s long term role as a proxy for the altcoin market, making it a historical first mover before other altcoins catch up in terms of market trends. Checkmate, the lead on-chain analyst at blockchain data firm Glassnode, also commented on Bitcoin’s recent consolidation. He explained that a gradual “de-leveraging” across Bitcoin futures has been ongoing since Bitcoin’s latest all-time highs in mid-March.