Key Points
Spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are not a sure bet yet, says Kevin de Patoul, CEO of digital asset market maker Keyrock.
He believes that while there’s a high probability of Ether ETFs being approved, it’s far from guaranteed.
Ether ETFs Attract Attention
Ether ETFs have become a hot topic in the crypto world after Bernstein, a wealth management firm, suggested that Ether might be the only other cryptocurrency to get an ETF this year.
Bernstein predicts a 50% chance of Ether ETFs being approved by May 2024.
Similarly, JPMorgan, a leading investment bank, also sees a 50% chance of an Ether ETF by May, while Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst, Eric Balchunas, puts the odds at 70%.
Polymarket, on the other hand, predicts a 42% chance of an ETF approval by the end of May.
Despite these predictions, de Patoul warns of potential hurdles in the approval process, similar to the challenges faced in getting the first spot Bitcoin ETFs approved in the United States.
One significant concern is that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Gary Gensler might classify Ether as a security.
Previously, Gensler has refrained from commenting on whether he considers Ether a security risk, despite former SEC Division Director William Hinman dismissing the idea in a 2018 speech.
De Patoul asserts that Ether is not a security, but the introduction of staking yield following last year’s merge that transitioned Ethereum to a proof-of-stake consensus model could make it appear more like a security offering from the SEC’s viewpoint.
The recent breach of the $3,000 psychological price level by Ether on Feb. 20 has reignited interest in Ether ETFs.
According to de Patoul, Ether’s recent price surge is mainly due to the anticipation around a potential spot ETF and the forthcoming Dencun upgrade.
“The Dencun upgrade will enhance the network by improving scalability and reducing gas fees, creating more value for Ethereum, which translates into positive price action,” he explained.