Key Points
- Standard Chartered revises its Bitcoin forecast, expecting a rebound from a recent low of $56,500.
- The bank cites less hawkish Federal Reserve rates and a positive U.S. jobs report as significant factors in its revised outlook.
Standard Chartered has adjusted its short-term outlook for Bitcoin, predicting a recovery from its recent low of $56,500. This is a change from the bank’s prediction last week, which suggested the cryptocurrency could fall into the $50,000-$52,000 range.
Optimistic Outlook on Bitcoin
Geoff Kendrick, Head of FX Research and Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, stated, “Things are improving and we have likely seen the low at $56,500 on 1 May.”
The bank revised its forecast after the Federal Reserve’s rates announcement last Wednesday was less aggressive than anticipated. This, coupled with a positive U.S. jobs report on Friday, were key macroeconomic factors that Kendrick believes led to $595 million of inflows to several U.S.-based Bitcoin ETFs in the last two sessions. This followed a record seven consecutive days of outflows. Kendrick also highlighted that Hong Kong ETFs have now added inflows of $246 million.
Concerns Over U.S. Government Debt
Kendrick expressed concerns over the sustainability of U.S. government debt and deficits. He suggested that for U.S. Treasurys, this could mean a steeper curve, higher breakevens, and higher term premiums. “We think such a scenario would be broadly supportive of digital assets as investors seek alternative assets,” he said.
The analyst also suggested that a second Trump administration, if it were to occur, would likely have a positive impact on Bitcoin. He believes a more supportive regulatory environment under Trump would be beneficial for digital assets.
